The term ‘Blue Wall’ politically refers to 18 US States and the District of Columbia, won consistently by Democrats in presidential elections between 1992-2012, except George W. Bush, who narrowly won the electoral college in 2000 and 2004 outside the blue wall. Again in 2016, Republican nominee Donald Trump narrowly won the three blue wall states, namely, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and an electoral vote from a blue wall state, Maine. States that fall under this category are— North-easter United States, West Coast of the United States, Great Lakes states, District of Columbia, California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode, Island, Delaware, Vermont, Washington D.C., etc.
Similarly, the term ‘Red Wall’ or ‘Red Sea’ less commonly refers to states that Republicans have consistently won in previous seven election cycles. These are in sparsely populated, primarily rural parts of America, and they could be worth as many as 158 electoral college votes, more than halfway to the White House. However, these states represent significantly less electoral votes than the blue wall due to Barak Obama’s win in 2008. These two terms also refer to the colours associated with the political parties. Under this term, come the following States— Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Indiana, Montana, etc.
The blue wall was a Democratic demographic lock on the Electoral College due to Republican Party’s (GOP) narrowing focus on the interests of white, rural, and Southern voters. This analysis gained popularity when MSNBC commentator featured it on a post-election episode of his show The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell.
Origin The term ‘Blue Wall’, is believed to have been coined in 2009 by Ronald Brownstein. The earliest description of the forces creating the blue wall comes from a Houston Chronicle blogger, Chris Ladd, who wrote in November 2014 that the seemingly impressive Republican win in the 2014 mid-term election had overshadowed another trend apparent in the results: a demographic and geographic collapse.
The term ‘Red Wall’, that refers to sparsely populated, rural parts of America, was coined in 2019 by pollster James Kanagasooriam. When viewed on a map of previous results, the block of seats held by the party resembled the shape of a wall, coloured red, which has traditionally been used to represent Labour.
Demise of the Blue Wall Demise of the blue wall refers to those States that traditionally voted blue (Democratic), but voted red (Republican) in 2016, and thus they are marked in red. For example, in 2016, Minnesota, a historic blue wall state, was won by Democrats by only 1.5 per cent and Maine by 3 per cent. Additionally, a congressional district in northern Maine gave the Republican (Grand Old Party—GOP) one electoral vote.
The Democrats’ ‘lock’ on these States had been questioned between 2012 and 2016 for being competitive in recent elections. Many States even had Republicans who still hold elected state-wide offices, generally either senator or governor, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine to name a few. Likewise, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont had Republican governors. Besides these 18 states, three others, Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire had only voted for the Republican once in the same 6 election cycles, whereas in Oregon, Bush lost by only 7,000 votes in 2000. Thus, if included in the total, the votes behind the blue wall numbered 257, short of 13 to win. In 2016 also, the blue wall went down from 242 electoral votes to 195.
Electoral College Electoral college is the system by which the President and Vice President of the United States are chosen. It provides a method of election that is feasible, desirable, and consistent with a republican form of government. The 23rd Amendment, adopted in 1961, provided electoral college representation for Washington, D.C. Accordingly, every four years on the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November, voters go to the polls to elect the President of the United States. The votes of the public determine electors, who formally choose the president through the electoral college. The combined number of the state’s members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate determine the number of electors a state receives.
Courtesy: India Today, britannica.com