US President-elect Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on January 20. He will have to do plenty of fence-mending with global allies in the coming months after four years of diplomatic tantrums by President Donald Trump. Among his first priorities would be to re-join the 2015 Paris Climate Pact, abruptly exited by Trump two years ago, to normalise US ties with Europe, and to come back to WHO that Trump had quit. Moreover, the US will keep pushing for Europe to contribute more to NATO’s budget, which seems to be a less divisive issue.
China will be the key US policy focus—tariff war and other anti-China moves those have taken shape under Trump’s foreign policy. Biden, may seek to lower the tension and strike some compromise tariff deal with China, and may increase human rights pressure. As of now, both sides are face to face—the US is determined to preserve its No.1 superpower status whereas China is equally committed to grabbing it which is clear from Beijing’s aggressive moves from Ladakh to Taiwan that, have put the world on notice.
India will be more in Washington’s sights even if the key action will still be in the South China Sea. However, the overtly aggressive tone, displayed by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his recent South Asia swing, cannot be expected.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi quickly tweeted congratulations to Biden on his ‘spectacular victory.’ But there is still one large question-mark—Trump was uninterested in human rights. While on the other hand, the Biden-Harris campaign manifesto stated India should ‘take all necessary steps to restore rights for all the people of Kashmir’, and described the Citizens’ Amendment Act as ‘inconsistent with the country’s long tradition of secularism’. Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris has come out openly on these issues; so, her stance will be closely watched.
Associate professor of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, Happymon Jacob believes that the Biden administration will have a more proactive policy towards human rights in India and Kashmir, but does not think they will be public about it.
BJP spokesman Syed Zafar Islamis of the view that under the leadership of Modi, India has made significant progress in terms of having better relationship with US, to the extent that the confidence level of US for India has gone up. Therefore, the Indo–US relationship will continue to improve whether there is a Democratic or Republican president in power in US. However, Jacob believes with the change of administration in the US, there is every possibility of a policy change in New Delhi towards human rights. The Modi administration knows that the Democrats have an activist policy towards human rights. So, a significant amount of policy change towards human rights in general and Kashmir issue (in particular) is expected.
On Afghanistan, Biden is said to have been unwilling to see the US embroiled in another Vietnam-style conflict during his vice-president stint. Therefore, whether he withdraws troops totally or maintains a small intelligence and military force in Afghanistan is to be seen.
Of Iran, Biden has already made it clear that restoring the Iranian nuclear deal is a priority. So, he must move there quickly before more hardliners are returned to power in Iran’s coming elections. The Iranians, too, are eager for US sanctions to end along with assurance that no Trump-like leader emerges and reneges on any pacts. If sanctions end, it would be a relief for India as well to relook at key projects like Chabahar.
Courtesy: Business Line