Over 75 per cent of districts in India are hotspots of extreme climate events, according to a report by the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) released on December 10, 2020. The report titled ‘Preparing India for Extreme Climate Events’ states that since 2005, there has been an unusual spike in extreme events, with three-fourths of total districts bearing the impact of changing microclimate, such as loss in lives, livelihoods and, property. This report is said to be the first to map extreme weather event hotspots in the country. Combining information from globally validated data sheets with data from sources such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Press Information Bureau (PIB), the study came up with a gridded exposure sheet of climate events and a geospatial analysis of extreme climate events using coarse grain resolution temporal maps.
The study says that climate change, caused by emissions from industries and other human activity, is making the world warmer, disrupting rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. There has been an increase (including extreme rainfall and heat wave events) as well as change in the spatial pattern of extreme weather events in recent years. Climate models suggest that the trends may continue in the coming years. This is owing to micro-climatic changes across the subcontinent, driven by local climate change drivers: land-use-surface change, deforestation, encroachments upon mangroves, and wetlands. Suggestions to deal with the problem include micro-level hazard assessment of climate extremes and localised-level comprehensive risk assessments.
The study observes that microclimatic zones, or areas where the weather is different from surrounding areas, are shifting across various districts of India. It may lead to severe disruptions across sectors—every 2 °C rise in annual mean temperature would reduce agricultural productivity by 15–20 per cent!
Findings of the Report
The main points of the report are as follows:
- India is facing dire effects even with a 0.6 °C rise in temperature over the past century.
- The current trend of catastrophic climate events results from a mere 0.6 °C temperature rise in the last 100 years.
- India is already the fifth most vulnerable country globally in terms of extreme climate events, and it is all set to become the world’s flood capital. (The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) ranks India first in terms of global flood hotspots followed by China and the USA).
- India recorded 310 extreme weather events after 2005 in comparison to 250 extreme climate events, including drought, floods, cyclones and compounding events like floods and cyclones, between 1970 and 2005.
- There has been a shift in the pattern of extreme climate events like flood-prone areas turning to drought-prone ones and vice versa in more than 40 per cent of the districts.
- Some 97.51 million people are estimated to be exposed to extreme floods in India. Between 1970 and 2004, only three extreme flood events occurred annually on average, but after 2005, the yearly average rose to 11. The yearly average for districts affected by floods until 2005 was 19, but the number of districts affected were 55 after 2005.
- The decade 2000–2009 showed a spike in extreme flood events and in associated flood events, which affected almost 473 districts. (As per National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), floods affected more than 5.1 million hectares of land in 2018).
- In 2019, India witnessed 16 extreme flood events, which affected 151 districts. Over 9.7 crore people are exposed to extreme floods in India at present.
- Changes in microclimate processes have altered the frequency and pattern of extreme flood events. Of the eight most flood-prone districts in India in the last decade, six were in Assam: Barpeta, Darrang, Dhemaji, Goalpara, Golaghat, and Sivasagar.
- The yearly average of drought-affected districts increased 13 times after 2005. Nearly 68 per cent of the districts have faced droughts and drought-like situations.
- Until 2005, the number of districts affected by drought was six, but, after 2005, this figure rose to 79.
- The most drought-affected districts of the decade 1980-89 were Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Banaskant, Bhavnagar, and Jamnagar, etc. Drought accounts for 22 per cent of the total loss and damage, whereas the death toll is around 3 per cent at global level.
- At global level, more than 90 tropical cyclones occur annually. In India, the current average is a little higher than 3. In 2000–09, the most severe cyclones hit North Goa, Puri, Kolkota, Amreli, and Baleshwar. The decade 2000–09 saw some major cyclonic storms and tropical cyclones that affected a total of 132 districts. Some 58 severe cyclonic storms affected 258 districts in 2010–19. The hot spot districts were all on the eastern coast: Chennai, Cuttack, East Godavari, Ganjam, Nellore, North 24 Parganas, Puri, and Srikakulam. This has been attributed to the eastern coast’s warming regional microclimate, land-use change, and degrading forests. The impact of land subsidence, the urban heat island phenomenon, and glacial melts leading to sea-level rise are together resulting in intensification of cyclonic disturbances, which means a rise in flood events.
- Some of the extreme events are also linked to the weakening of monsoon due to rising micro-temperatures. The number of rainy days during monsoon have decreased, but single-day extreme rainfall events are increasing, leading to flooding. Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra faced water scarcity during 2015 due to record-breaking temperatures during summer and weakening monsoons.
Effects of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
Studies on climate change and occurrence of extreme weather events have highlighted some concerns.
- India is the 14th most climate change-affected country in the world, according to the Global Climate Risk Index released in December 2020 by Bonn-based Germanwatch.
- In 2018-19, as many as 2,400 Indians lost their lives to extreme weather events such as floods and cyclones, according to the environment ministry.
- In India, according to India Meteorological Department data, average temperatures have increased by 0.6 °C between 1901–10 and 2009–18. The World Bank estimates that if climate change continues unhindered, then average temperatures in India could reach as high as 29.1 °C by the end of the century (up from 25.1 °C at present).
- In the last 8 years (2011–18), the hottest year was in 2016 when the average temperature across India was 26.2 °C.
- The region around Jaipur has had the highest rise in temperature at 0.93 degrees, according to an IMD study of changes in temperature between 1908–18 and 1950–80.
- Comparing the average temperature in 2009–18 to that in 1950–80 reveals that some pockets have already become much hotter. In parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the North Eastern Region, average temperature over the last decade has risen by nearly 1 °C compared to the historical average in the 1950–80 period.
- Vidarbha in Maharashtra is the most vulnerable region vis-a-vis climate change in India (World Bank); the agrarian region lacks infrastructure like electricity and irrigation to successfully cope with the changes.
There has been an increase in temperatures of extreme hot days (temperatures exceeding 35 °C) across Indian cities. For instance, in Delhi, the number of days where temperatures have crossed 35 °C has increased to 1,613 this decade (2009–18) from 1,009 in 1959–68. Other major cities, such as Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad, have also seen a similar increase. In cities which are epicentres of economic activity, rising temperatures can increase the spread of diseases and hurt productivity. In coastal cities, climate change-induced rising sea levels also pose an additional threat through more frequent flooding.
A region’s vulnerability to temperature changes is based on factors like access to infrastructure including electricity, roads and water connections, and dependence on agriculture. According to the World Bank, central districts in India are the most vulnerable to climate change because they lack the infrastructure and are largely agrarian. The districts in Maharasthra’s Vidarbha region are particularly susceptible to climate change, as they are under rural distress, having seen many farmer suicides in recent years. In such districts, the World Bank suggests that GDP per capita could shrink by nearly 10 per cent by 2050 as a result of climate change.
In terms of global GHG emissions, India’s share remains significantly lower than those of both the US and China. So, though much of India’s climate change crisis is a result of GHG emissions in general, there are some domestic factors as well. For instance, the country still overwhelmingly relies on coal for electricity, the emissions which contribute significantly to climate change (68 per cent of India’s emissions come from generating energy). This also aggravates air pollution. Similarly, an inefficient agricultural policy encourages excessive water use, which exacerbates any climate change-induced monsoon variations. As climate change is inextricably linked with India’s other environmental crises, there is a need for a comprehensive plan to tackle it.
The Most Affected
According to the 2017–18 Economic Survey, extreme temperatures and droughts (defined as temperatures or rainfall loss 40 per cent greater than the median) shrink farmer incomes to the tune of 4–14 per cent for key crops owing to the heat and disruption of rainfall). Poorer farmers depend on monsoon and suitable climates; they are the most affected in regions with weaker infrastructure and less irrigation.
For workers in industries like construction, high temperatures can make working difficult and decrease their productivity. According to the International Labour Organization, the loss in productivity by 2030 because of heat stress could be the equivalent of India losing 34 million full-time jobs (up from 15 million in 1995)—the highest among the world’s most populous nations.
For vulnerable people, rising temperatures, especially combined with humidity, can be difficult. It is pointed out, for instance, that a newborn exposed to a week of hot and humid environment is much less likely to survive compared to one faced with a less hostile condition.