On December 9, 2020, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its annual flagship Emissions Gap Report, which assesses the gap between anticipated emissions in 2030 and levels consistent with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets of the Paris Agreement. It warned that the world is heading for a temperature rise of over 3 °C this century. The world is hurtling towards extreme climate change, following a year of weather extremes, like rapid ice loss in the Arctic, wildfires in USA and Siberia, and record heat waves.
The report states that the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions, which resulted in a brief emissions dip, will be negligible in the long term unless coupled with a green recovery. The world will fail to meet the 1.5 °C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement unless global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drop by 7.6 per cent annually.
India is the fourth-largest emitter of GHGs. (Incidentally, these are not rankings on per capita basis. India falls to sixth rank in per capita emissions. Also, the gap between the largest emitter, China and India is large).
Highlights of the Report
The report has made the following observations:
- Greenhouse gas emissions have grown at an average of 1.4 per cent annually since 2010.
- Total GHG emissions in 2019, including those related to land-use change (LUC), touched 59.1 GtCO2e, a new high. There was a more rapid year-on-year increase of 2.6 per cent, due to rise in forest fires.
(GtCO2e, abbreviation for ‘gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide’, is used to express emissions of various green house gases in terms of the amount of carbon dioxide that would have the same global warming effect. One gigatonne is a thousand million tonnes.)
- 2019 was the third consecutive year of global GHG emissions growth.
- The existing Paris Agreement pledges can limit global warming to no less than 3.2 °C by the end of the century with 66 per cent probability.
- The levels of ambition in the Paris Agreement still must be roughly tripled for the 2 °C pathway and increased at least fivefold for the 1.5 °C pathway.
- By 2030, annual emissions must be 15 GtCO2e below current conditional nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets to limit warming to 2 °C.
- Emissions in 2020 may fall 7 per cent compared to the levels in 2019 due to COVID-19, but this drop would slow global warming by only 0.01°C by 2050 which may exceed 1.5 °C by then.
- The US, China, India, and the EU27+UK are the leading emitters, contributing 55 per cent of the total emissions—not accounting for land-use change such as deforestation. The rankings would change if land-use change emissions were included, when Brazil could be the largest emitter.
The top seven emitters contributed to 65 per cent of the total emission. The emitters include Russian Federation, Japan, and international transport.
- The richest 1 per cent of the global population is responsible for more than twice the combined emissions share of the poorest 50 per cent.
- The Group of 20 (G20) countries accounted for 78 per cent of total emissions. The G-20 countries are projected to over achieve their modest 2020 Cancun Pledges, including the COVID-19 impact, but they are not on the way to achieve their NDC commitments; except nine countries which are on track to fulfil their 2030 NDC commitments—Argentina China, EU27+ UK, India, Japan, Mexico, the Russian Federation, South Africa, and Turkey. Five of the G-20 members—Australia, Brazil, Canada, the Republic of Korea, and the US—require further action. As for Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, there is a lack of sufficient information, and therefore, their projections are inconclusive.
- Efficiency improvements and growth in low-carbon energy sources led to decrease in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) emissions, though non-OECD emissions continued to increase.
- Sectors that are the largest emitters are energy, industry, forestry, transport, agriculture, and building.
- A global green recovery, through policies like direct support for zero-emissions technologies and infrastructure, decrease in fossil fuel subsidies, no new coal power plants, and adopting nature-based-solutions, can reduce 2030 emissions by up to 25 per cent from pre-COVID-19 predictions. This can significantly up the possibility of limiting warming to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. But policies are collectively falling short of achieving current NDC targets by 3 GtCO2
- The most significant and encouraging climate policy development of 2020 is the move by 126 countries, representing 51 per cent of global emissions, to commit to or consider mid-century net-zero targets. But these pledges have yet to be reflected in countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement or backed by effective action. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is possible if green recovery is combined with rapid implementation of net-zero pledges.
- Technology and operations improvements have increased fuel efficiency and there has been progress in emissions limitation agreements for aviation as well as shipping (both combined contributing 5 per cent of global emissions). However, because of the increase in demand, there would not be absolute emissions reductions. Both sectors need to combine energy efficiency with a rapid transition from fossil fuels to fuels like biofuels and synthetic kerosene from biomass or CO2 and hydrogen, or CO2-free ammonia. Recommendations include replacing flights with rail, enabling cycling and car sharing, and improving energy efficiency of housing. International emissions from shipping and aviation are not covered under the NDCs. Owing to their demand, they are projected to consume between 60–220 per cent of allowable CO2 emissions by 2050.
Around two-thirds of global emissions are linked to the private household activities like mobility, residential, and food, each of which contributes about 20 per cent of lifestyle emissions. Reducing consumption emissions of 2–2.5 tCO2e by 2030 per capita is necessary to gain the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement.
India’s Position
India is among a small group of countries that are keen to achieve their self-declared climate targets under the Paris Agreement. India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to be achieved by 2030 from 2005 level are mainly:
(1) reducing the emissions intensity of the GDP by 33-35 per cent, and has avoided 359 billion tonne of CO2 emission by 2020.
(2) ensuring a total of 40 per cent of the installed capacity for electricity is from non-fossil fuel sources; and
(3) provising an additional carbon sink—to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by way of additional forest and tree cover by the year 2030.
About the Report
The annual ‘emissions gap’ report measures the gap between anticipated emissions and emissions consistent with limiting the global temperature rise this century as agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement. (Under the global climate pact, nations have committed to a long-term goal of limiting the average temperature rise to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it even further to 1.5 °C).
The report considers scenarios contributing to the emissions predicament and ways to assess it—from ‘no new climate policies’ since 2005 to full implementation of all national commitments under the Paris Agreement. It showcases the latest assessment of scientific studies on current and estimated future GHGs emissions and compares these with the emission levels mentioned to set out a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The 2020 report looked at the potential of the energy transition—particularly in the power, transport and buildings sectors—and efficiency in the use of materials such as iron, steel, and cement.
November 2020 was declared the hottest-ever November on record by researchers at Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service in December. The year 2020 is on course to be one of the warmest on record, with numerous wildfires, storms and droughts.