The Maldivian Parliament, People’s Majlis, on March 23, 2022, accepted an emergency motion, moved by Abdulla Jabir, a member of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), led by former president Mohamed Nasheed. The motion disallowed an opposition rally, planned by former president Abdulla Yameen’s Progressive Party and its ally, the People’s National Congress. The theme of the rally was ‘India Out’. The protestors claimed that the MDP government ‘sold out’ the country to India.
Some domestic elements in the Maldives have skilfully attempted to worsen the relationship between India and the Maldives by driving anti-India sentiments. Though India plays a critical role in the economic, defence, and humanitarian sectors of the Maldives, India is being victimised of the internal political situation in the Maldives.
Ahmed Azaan, co-founder of Maldivian online news outlet Dhiyares, says, the ‘India Out’ campaign is a call for the removal of the Indian military from the Maldives. It is not a call to cut off diplomatic and trade relations with India.
The incumbent Solih government is making tremendous effort to keep anti-India campaign at bay. In this regard, a bill termed ‘Bill on combating actions affecting diplomatic ties established between the Maldives and foreign countries’ was recently submitted to the Maldives’ parliament to contain activities that adversely affect New Delhi–Male relations. However, if there is a change in political leadership, India’s affairs with the Maldives might be affected.
Why the Opposition
India and Maldives signed an agreement in February 2021 to develop the harbour of the Maldives National Defence Force Coast Guard at Sifvaru-Uthuru Thilafalhu (UTF). Yameen and his supporters called the agreement as an Indian effort to station Indian troops in the Maldives and accused the Solih regime of compromising the sovereignty of the country. The role of China cannot be ruled out in the context of the ‘India Out’ campaign.
The current development dates back to certain decisions made by the Yameen government, such as the return of two Advanced Light Helicopters (ALF) helicopters, Dhruv, gifted by India to the coast guard. These helicopters were used for benign purposes such as ocean search-and-rescue operations and maritime weather surveillance. However, the then government criticised India’s military intervention as a threat to national sovereignty. When domestic politics became unstable in the Maldives, former President Mohammed Nasheed requested India to intervene.
Though India wants a greater defence cooperation with the Maldives to curb Chinese influence in the region, India does not have a military base, or a considerable number of troops stationed in the Maldives. So the accusation against India is unwarranted.
Status of the Anti-India Campaign
The anti-India campaign reached a serious turn and the security of Indian diplomatic staff became a matter of concern in 2021. If the campaign continues unabated, it will set its eyes on influencing the next presidential election, due in 2023. The MDP holds the majority of seats in the parliament but if the opposition wins the presidential election, the Maldives will have a divided government leading to domestic rifts through policy deadlocks.
The pandemic provided China an opportunity to prolong its influence, in part by partially suspending its loan repayments for four years. Solih is keen to balance the Maldives’ foreign policy interests with China and India. At the same time, he is also worried of facing similar consequences as faced by Sri Lanka due to ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ from China. Therefore, the Maldivian government now seems to be more inclined towards India and has begun diversifying its foreign investments.
India-Maldives Relationship
India has always stood by the Maldives in times of emergency. Recently, the Maldives has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the COVID-19 assistance and became the first beneficiary of India’s Vaccine Maitri initiative. India’s ‘vaccine diplomacy’ with the Maldives is a clear sign of an enduring relationship as India gifted 1,00,000 additional doses of COVID vaccine in January, 2021.
Under Mission Sagar (India’s initiative to help countries in the Indian Ocean littoral states during the COVID-19 Pandemic), INS Kesari, a landing ship tank (large) in May–June 2020 provided humanitarian and medical assistance to Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar, and Comoros, including deployment of medical assistance teams of the Indian Navy in multiple locations.
In 1988, India sent paratroopers and Navy vessels, under the Operation Cactus, to restore the legitimate leadership of President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom when armed mercenaries attempted a coup against him.
Responding to Maldives’ urgent request for assistance, INS Sukanya, on patrol off Kochi, was diverted pronto to arrive Male in December 2004, when the Maldives was struck by the tsunami.
Apart from that, the Maldives is a member of the Colombo Security Conclave. The conclave is a maritime security grouping of India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Mauritius, and forges closer cooperation on maritime and security matters among these Indian Ocean countries.
India and Maldives also conduct Ekuverin, a joint military exercise.
India provides a liberal and visa-free regime to Maldivian nationals who come to India to attend educational institutions, and to receive super-speciality health care.
Since tourism is the mainstay of the Maldivian economy, it is a major tourist destination for many Indians and a job destination for others.
India’s Development Projects in the Maldives
India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, inaugurated the National College for Policing and Law Enforcement (NCPLE) during his two-day visit to the Maldives in March 2022. The NCPLE is one of India’s largest funded projects in the Maldives’ Addu City. One of the objectives of establishing this training academy is to address the challenges of violent extremism and prevent radicalisation in the Maldives. Besides, the NCPLE will enhance cooperation between India and Maldives in dealing with these issues. Locally, the training academy would help strengthen law-enforcement abilities and counter drug trafficking, a major concern in the country. To enhance cooperation in training and capacity building, a memorandum of understanding was also signed by the Maldives Police Service and India’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel National Police Academy. India has also increased the number of training slots for the Maldives in India’s police academy.
In order to reciprocate India’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy, the Solih government has begun ‘India first’ policy. The Maldives realises a mutually beneficial relationship with India, and will maintain this relationship despite growing anti-India sentiments.
India provided financial assistance of US$ 500 million (a US$ 100 million grant and a US$ 400 million line of credit) for the construction of the Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP) in the Maldives so that the Indian Ocean Islands may deal with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Maldives-China Relationship
The ‘India Out’ campaign in the Maldives might be because of Yameen’s affinity with China as China and Maldives established good relations when Yameen was in power. Xi Jinping visited the Maldives during Yameen’s regime in 2014.
During Yameen’s tenure, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) funded numerous scholarships, seminars, and exchange programmes in the Maldives. Around 1.3 billion dollars of loans (more than a quarter of Maldives’ GDP) were given to the Maldives by China for building the island country’s airport and the Sinmale Friendship Bridge.
In 2018, Yameen was ousted from power, and Ibrahim Mohamed Solih became the new president. China started funding small media websites to direct a political campaign to benefit China in the long run.
China has increased strategic footprint in India’s neighbourhood, and the Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s ‘String of Pearls’ construct in South-Asia, which remains a concern for India.
String of Pearls
The term ‘String of Pearls’ refers to the network of Chinese intentions in the India Ocean Region (IOR). Precisely put, the term refers to the network of Chinese military and commercial facilities, developed by China along the Indian Ocean.
India’s ‘Look East Policy’ is an answer to Chinese ‘String of Pearls’.
Conclusion
Given the situation, India must remain attentive to the developments in the Maldives. India needs to play a key role within Indo-Pacific security space, which was developed as a response to the growth of extra-regional powers like China’s in India’s maritime sphere of influence.
Even if the ‘India Out’ campaign has limited support, India should not take it for granted. If India fails to effectively convince the Maldivians about its intentions behind the projects on the island nation, the domestic political situation in the Maldives may change the dynamics of India’s currently favourable relationship with the country.
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