The International Energy Agency (IEA) came out with its Global Energy and CO2 Status Report 2018, in March 2019. The report gives us a gist of recent global trends and developments across fuels, energy efficiency, and carbon emissions, and renewable sources in 2018.
In 2018, global energy consumption grew at around twice the average rate of growth since 2010 due to a robust global economy as well as the higher heating and cooling needs in some parts of the world. As a result, demand for all types of fuel grew, be it natural gas, solar, or wind. Over half of the energy needs grew because of higher electricity demand. No remarkable improvement was seen in energy efficiency. Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 1.7 per cent to a historic high of 33.1 giga tonnes (Gt). It was the highest rate of growth since 2013 and 70 per cent higher than the average increase since 2010. Emissions from all fossil fuels increased; the power sector was responsible for nearly two-thirds of the growth in emissions. Even today, coal-fired power generation is the single largest emitter, accounting for 30 per cent of all energy-related CO2 emissions. Coal use in power was more than 10 Gt CO2, mostly in Asia. Eighty-five per cent of the net increase in emissions was accounted for by China, India, and USA alone. The cause of high energy demand was the global economy, which grew by 3.7 per cent in 2018, whereas the average annual growth was 3.5 per cent since 2010. Of this, China, India, and the United States together accounted for nearly 70 per cent growth in energy demand. Increase in emissions was also due to weather conditions in some parts of the world that led to greater use of energy for heating or cooling. Almost one-fifth of the increase in global energy demand was due to winter and summer temperatures which reached or exceeded historical records in some parts.
Natural Gas Natural gas remained in the lead as the fuel of choice, accounting for nearabout 45 per cent of the increase in total energy demand. There was an estimated 4.6 per cent rise in natural gas consumption—the largest increase since 2010 when gas demand grew after a global financial crisis. The year 2018 saw a second consecutive year of high growth, following a 3 per cent rise in 2017. It has been attributed to growing energy demand and substitution from coal. Demand for fossil fuels was 70 per cent of the growth for the second year running.
Oil Global oil demand rose by 1.3 per cent in 2018. Growth in gasoline demand growth fell due to price rise in 2018. It accounted for about 13 per cent of world oil demand growth in 2018, as against about 35 per cent in the period from 2014 to 2017. Globally, the largest growth in oil and gas was recorded in the United States. Increase in gas consumption in USA grew to 10 per cent from the previous year, the fastest increase since 1971 when the IEA records began.
Coal Coal demand grew for a second year in 2018 globally, but its 0.7 per cent increase was much lower than the 4.5 per cent annual growth rate noted in the period from 2001 to 2010. So, though share of coal in primary energy demand and in generation of electricity is dropping, it is still the largest source of electricity generation and the second-largest source of primary energy.
Renewables Renewables increased by over 4 per cent and fulfilled around one-quarter of the growth out of total global primary energy demand. The renewables accounted for 45 per cent of the growth in 2018 mainly because of rise in electricity generation.
The power sector was mainly responsible for the increase in renewables, with renewables-based electricity generation increasing at its fastest pace so far (in the 2011-2020 decade). Solar photovoltaic, hydropower, and wind each had about one-third share in the growth, with bioenergy accounting for most of the rest.
Electricity Electricity demand grew by 4 per cent globally, in 2018—about twice as fast as overall energy demand and at its fastest pace since 2010. Most of the growth in demand was met by renewables and nuclear energy even as production from coal-based and gas-fired power plants increased significantly. As a result, CO2 emissions from the sector went up by 2.5 per cent. Nuclear energy also increased by 3.3 per cent in 2018 since Japan has started four reactors and China has a new capacity. Nuclear power met around 7 per cent of energy demand.
However, electricity is still the fuel of the future. In 2018, the global electricity demand rose by 4 per cent to more than 23,000 TWh, which accounts for about 20 per cent share in total final energy consumption.
Energy Efficiency Energy efficiency showed improvements in 2018 as compared to 2017: in 2018, the global economy required an average of 1.3 per cent less energy inputs for every unit of GDP, as compared to 2017. Efficiency offset 40 per cent less CO2 emissions in 2018, relative to 2017. But, in recent years, the annual rate of improvement in global primary energy intensity has been on a decrease. The year 2018 marked the third consecutive year in which the improvement rate for energy efficiency slowed.
Limited improvement in global energy efficiency in 2018 is due to the following:
* static energy efficiency policy environment in 2018 (little progress on implementing new energy efficiency policies or increasing stringency of existing policies);
* only about one-third of final energy use covered by mandatory energy efficiency policies such as codes and standards; and
* little progress on policy measures like financial incentives and information and capacity-building programmes.
Regional Trends As per the report, China registered the maximum increase in energy demand which rose from 3.5 per cent to 3,155 Mega-tonne of oil equivalent (Mtoe), the highest since 2012. Though demand increased for all types of fuels, gas was the number one choice. In China, generation of energy is done through all types of technologies, but coal is the prime factor to fulfil an 8.5 per cent growth in demand. That’s why inputs to the power sector are about 95 per cent of the growth, with the result that China had the world’s largest rise in wind and solar generation in 2018.
In USA, energy demand grew by 3.7 per cent or 80 Mtoe, accounting for one-fourth of the global growth. This growth in 2018 came after three years of decline. Half of the increase was primarily due to weather, i.e., hotter-than-average summer and colder-than-average winter. Electricity generation and heating accelerated the demand for gas.
As for India, the primary energy demand grew 4 per cent or over 35 Mtoe, which accounts for 11 per cent of the global growth, i.e., the third-largest share. Coal was used for power generation, whereas for transport, oil was used. Due to India’s 7 per cent economic growth (the highest among large economies), there is a huge coal demand especially for electricity generation and steel production. Coal demand grew by around 5 per cent in 2018, even as new solar and wind capacity met less than one-third of the growth in electricity demand.
Europe followed a different path in this regard. There, the economy expanded by 1.8 per cent, but demand for energy grew by only 0.2 per cent. Germany showed a 2.2 per cent drop in energy demand and 6 per cent decrease in oil demand. However, in the United Kingdom and France, the demand grew moderately.
Key Highlights
* China, India, and the United States together account for nearly 70 per cent of the growth in demand of energy.
* The largest emitter, the USA, was responsible for 14 per cent.
* India’s per capita emissions were about 40 per cent of the global average and contributed 7 per cent of the CO2 emission in 2018.
* In 2018, the growth in emissions was higher than that of the US and China—the two biggest emitters—due to a growth in coal consumption.
* India emitted 2,299 million tonnes of CO2 in 2018 which is 8 per cent more than the previous year.
* Emissions fell in Germany, France, UK, Mexico, and Japan.