Introduction
In the 19th century, the British and the Russian empires competed to grab power in Afghanistan and neighbouring central as well as south Asian territories. However, neither of them succeeded and the area came to be known as the ‘graveyard of empires’. Now, the superpower, the USA, has faced a similar fate with the recapture of Afghanistan by the Taliban. The way in which the 3,00,000-strong Afghan Army, supposed to have been trained by the US Army and backed by NATO forces, collapsed in hours in August 2021 is an indicator to the limits of American supremacy in the region.
The root of the present Afghanistan crisis goes back to the war in Afghanistan that began in 2001 in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US. The US and its allies toppled the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan so that the Al-Qaeda terrorist group could not operate from there. The war was officially fought between NATO allies and the Afghan Armed Forces (AAF), on the one side, and the Taliban, on the other. For nearly twenty years, the US and its Afghan allies held power in Afghanistan.
Background
Afghanistan has been a land of turmoil—either due to ethnic differences or due to foreign interference. Political instability has always been an important issue. This instability can be attributed to a plethora of factors ranging from its hostile topography and location dominated by rugged mountains, social composition, cultural pattern, and politics. The mountains provide an ideal hiding place for rebels.
Topography and Location of Afghanistan Afghanistan is situated at an average altitude of about 1.2 km. The Hindu Kush mountain range rises to more than 6.1 km in the northern corner of Vakhan panhandle in the north-east, leading to a south-westerly direction for about 970 km, and divides the northern provinces from the rest of the country.
Central Afghanistan contains many small fertile valleys and provides excellent grazing for sheep, goats, and camels. There are four major river systems—the Amu Darya (Oxus) in the north, flowing into the Aral Sea; the Harirud and Morghab in the west; the Helmand in the southwest; and the Kabul in the east, flowing into the Indus. Besides, there are few lakes.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country, strategically located in central and south-west Asia. Its area exceeds 6.5 lakh sq. km with only 20 per cent of the land used as fields. The nearest coast lies along the Arabian Sea, about 480 km to the south. It is bounded to the east and south by Pakistan, to the west by Iran, and to the north by the Central Asian states of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. It touches India if the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is taken into account. In the extreme northeast, it also shares a short border with Xinjiang province of China, at the end of the long and narrow Vakhan Corridor.
Summers are hot and dry but the winters are very cold, especially in the northern region of the Hindu Kush, located in the eastern part of the country near Pakistan and Tajikistan. The mountain passes allow travellers passage across Asia.
The country formed a busy part of the Silk Road, once used by travellers of China, India, and Europe for over 2,000 years.
Ethnic Identities in Afghanistan The fabric of Afghanistan consists of different ethnic groups, mainly Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras, who have been residing there for centuries. There are dissimilarities among them based on way of living, beliefs, language, and social status.
The Pashtuns, also called Pakhtuns, form the largest ethnic group, and they follow the Sunni sect of Islam. They dominate over the other ethnic groups and hold the most reputed jobs in the government. The Pashtuns are further divided into tribes, most popular among them being Durrani and Ghilzai (or Ghilzay, Gilzai, Ghaljai), and speak Pashto language. Pashtuns follow Pashtunwali, i.e., a non-written code of lifestyle, ethics, customs, and rituals.
The Tajiks constitute the second largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. They speak Dari Persian language and are not divided into tribes. They are mainly involved in sheep or goat herding and sedentary mountain farming. They grow many fine nuts and fruits and live in Badakhshi, Andarabi, Panjsheri, and Samangani.
The Uzbeks live along the northern areas of Afghanistan mixed with the Tajiks and speak central Turkic dialects like Uzbeki. Most of them earn their livelihood by farming and herding, though several have become flourishing businessmen and skilled artisans. They are averse to the Pashtuns.
The Hazaras live in the central regions of Afghanistan called Hazarajat. They follow the Shia sect and are of Mughal descent. They are mainly farmers and shepherds. They are discriminated against due to their distinct Mongoloid features. The Hazaras account for 10–12 per cent of Afghanistan’s 38 million population.
Cultural Pattern of Afghan Society There is competition among the equivalent units in the cultural pattern of Afghanistan. Competition starts at the level of male first cousins and works its way up through lineages and subtribes to ethnic group rivalries. But whenever there is competition from outside, all the units unite.
About 84 per cent of Afghans are Sunnis. One per cent of the population comprises Hindus and Sikhs. Culturally, Islamic religious traditions and codes with traditional practices provide the principal means of controlling personal conduct and settling legal disputes.
The Afghan society regards women as the perpetuators of the ideals of their society. Strict restraints are imposed on women, subordinating their personal autonomy and strengthening male control over them and the society at large. This attitude is manifested in the practice of purdah, seclusion, and veiling. Interactions between the sexes is not allowed unless the male is in the position of a guardian of the women, such as father, brother, or son. This limits women’s activities to their homes.
Political Developments The politics of Afghanistan is characterised by an almost total absence of a centralised power structure with authority over its people and territory. The country has faced invasions throughout the course of its history. The last foreign invasion was by the US with its allies. However, the US had to withdraw after fighting for almost two decades, the longest ever period in the history of the US.
The following developments need to be noted:
Operation Enduring Freedom After the terrorist attack of the 9/11, the then President of the US, George W. Bush, demanded that the Taliban hand over Osama bin Laden, the leader of the Al-Qaeda, but the Taliban refused to do so. As a result, the US initiated Operation Enduring Freedom in which the Taliban, their Al-Qaida allies, and the Northern Alliance were for all purposes defeated.
In 2001, 25 prominent Afghans (mostly from the Northern Alliance) met under UN auspices in Bonn, Germany, and elected Hamid Karzai to head the Afghan Interim Administration. The UN Security Council established the International Security Alliance Force (ISAF), consisting of forces from over 40 countries, including all NATO members, to assist the new Afghan administration.
Reorganisation of the Taliban In 2003, Mulla Mohammad Omar reorganised the Taliban. Insurgents from the Taliban and allied groups waged war through guerrilla raids and ambushes in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and turncoat killings against coalition forces. The Taliban also exploited the weaknesses in the Afghan government and reasserted influence in the entire rural areas of southern and eastern Afghanistan. They committed atrocities against civilians after making further gains in 2006. On the other hand, the alliance force increased troops to counter insurgents with ‘clear and hold’ villages policy.
Exit of NATO Forces From 2007 to 2009, violence increased. Troop numbers also continued to increase through 2011 reaching about up to 1,40,000, who operated under ISAF and US command in Afghanistan.
In 2011, Osama bin Laden was killed by the US forces in Abbottabad, the capital city of Abbottabad District in the Hazara region of eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. In 2012, NATO leaders announced an exit strategy to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. The US, too, announced that its major combat operations would end in December 2014, but a residual force would remain in the country.
The UK and the US officially ended their combat operations in Afghanistan in October 2014, and handed over their bases in Afghanistan to Afghan forces. Some 500 UK troops stayed back for ‘non-combat’ purposes. In December 2014, NATO also officially ended its combat operations and transferred full security responsibility to the Afghan government. However, operations by the US forces continued under Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (under which the US forces were to participate in a mission to train, advise, and assist Afghan forces to carry out counterterrorism operations against the Al-Qaeda remnants), joined by a new NATO mission under the name of Resolute Support Mission (RSM).
Resolute Support Mission (RSM) was led by NATO as a successor to ISAF before NATO left Afghanistan. It was a non-combat mission, set up at the invitation of the Afghan government and as per the UN Security Council Resolution 2189 of 2014. It aimed to assist the Afghan security forces and institutions to develop the capacity to defend Afghanistan and protect its citizens in the long term. The hub of the mission was in Bagram near Kabul, and its four spokes were in Mazar-e Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, and Laghman. The other functions of the RSM included training, advising, and assisting activities at the security-related ministries, in the country’s security institutions, and among the senior ranks of the army and police, working in coordination with the Afghan army, police, and air force.
Taliban’s Revival
The Taliban, however, made a comeback. Its resurgence was due to several factors. One factor was the Pakistani military’s Operation Zarb-e-Azb, launched in the North Waziristan tribal area of Pakistan against militants groups, which dislodged several Uzbek, Arab, and Pakistani militants. These militants entered Afghanistan and consolidated the Taliban. As per press reports, at least 20 per cent of Afghanistan came under the Taliban as of July 2016. On September 22, 2016, a draft peace deal was signed between the Afghanistan government and the Hezb-e-Islami (a political party and former militia, founded in 1975 and led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar). The peace deal stipulated that hostilities would cease, Hekmatyar’s group would cut ties with extremist groups and respect the Afghan Constitution in return of government recognition of the group and support for the removal of the UN and American sanctions against Hekmatyar. Hekmatyar was also promised an honorary post in the government.
Thus, combat and negotiations continued between the Taliban and the US forces. The Taliban bombed the parliament in Kabul in January 2017. A major development was the Haqqani Network entering the Taliban leadership, which made peace negotiations more difficult.
On March 23, 2017, Sangin district in southern Afghanistan was captured by the Taliban. The American and Afghan forces launched Operation Hamza to ‘flush’ ISIS-K (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan Province) from its stronghold in eastern Afghanistan. In September 2017, the US administration under Donald Trump deployed another 3,000 US troops to Afghanistan, bringing the total to at least 14,000. These forces launched many air strikes over the areas held by the Taliban, leading to lakhs of civilians and militia being killed. The terrorist activities, retaliation from the forces, and efforts of peace talks continued to the end of February 2020.
Taliban’s Source of Revenue In order to further its objective of recapturing Afghanistan, The Taliban was also backed by regular sources of revenue to finance its activities. As per a report in May 2020, the United Nations Security Council estimated that the Taliban’s overall annual combined revenues ranged from US$ 300 million to US$ 1.5 billion per annum. The primary source of the Taliban’s funds has been the drug trade. Heroin production and illegal trade was the main source of revenue generation for many years; the production of methamphetamine is growing in Afghanistan—a major new drug industry with significant profit margins.
It was reported by Radio Free Europe in September 2020 that the Taliban “has achieved, or is close to achieving, financial and military independence”, which “enables [it] to self-fund its insurgency without the need for support from governments or citizens of other countries”. The illicit drug trade, mining, and export helped the Taliban expand its financial power in recent years.
Taliban’s Second Takeover
Peace Initiative: Doha Agreement On February 29, 2020, the US and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar. As per the deal, officially called the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan, the US troops would withdraw from Afghanistan within 14 months provided the Taliban cooperated to not “allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including Al-Qaeda, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the US and its allies”. The Taliban was also to enter into talks with the Afghan government. However, the Al-Qaeda and ISIL-K (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant–Khorasan Province) insurgents continued to operate in Afghanistan. Not being a party to the deal, the Afghan government turned down terms of the deal regarding release of prisoners. The Taliban refused to talk with the government without the release of the prisoners.
Withdrawal of US Troops By January 2021, only 2,500 US personnel were left in Afghanistan, which was the lowest force level since 2001. On February 15, ISIL-K operatives exchanged fire with fighters of an elite unit of the Afghan government, killing about 20 fighters of the elite unit. President Ashraf Ghani offered to hold peace talks with the Taliban. However, Joe Biden, now the President of the USA, announced on August 24 that all the remaining US troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan by August 31, 2021. Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia also announced the withdrawal of the remaining 80 troops from Australia in line with the US withdrawal. Germany and Italy had already completely withdrawn their forces and equipment by June 30.
On July 2, officials announced that Western forces had left the Bagram Air Base without notice, turning over control of that base to the Afghan government.
Before complete withdrawal, Biden also reportedly concluded that it was an ‘unwinnable war’ and a situation without ‘a military solution’. (This statement also seems to have adversely affected the morale of the forces fighting against the Taliban.)
Taliban’s Speedy Takeover of Afghanistan Grabbing the opportunity offered by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban began capturing peripheral regions of Afghanistan, and by July 5, 2021, it had taken control of roughly two-thirds of Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of NATO forces, Afghan army soldiers also allegedly started fleeing from the country, and in a short period of time, the Taliban was able to recapture Afghanistan.
Fall of Kabul The battle for Kabul started with a citywide blackout and heavy assaults from its outskirts on August 15, 2021. On the same day, negotiations for the surrender of Kabul were reported. The Taliban forces entered the capital city of Kabul, where they met with only limited resistance. In the afternoon, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani left the country. Consequently, the remaining loyalist forces abandoned their posts.
The same day, the Taliban replaced the flag of Afghanistan with their own flag over the presidential palace. On August 16, the Taliban informally proclaimed the restoration of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which was formally declared on August 19, 2021. This led many international analysts and governments to conclude that the Taliban had won the war.
Battle of Panjshir On August 17, Vice President Amrulla Saleh declared himself President of Afghanistan, citing provisions of the Afghani Constitution. He spoke from a base of operations in the Panjshir Valley, till then not taken over by the Taliban forces, and vowed to continue military operations against the Taliban. His claim to the presidency was endorsed by Ahmad Massoud, the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, and Afghanistan’s Minister of Defence, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi. The resistance forces from Panjshir recaptured the provincial capital of Charikar on August 17, and on August 26, a ceasefire was signed between the Taliban and the Panjshir resistance. But on September 6, Panjshir was captured by the Taliban forces and the leader of the resistance fighters, Ahmad Massoud, was reported to have left Afghanistan.
Role of Pakistan and Impact on it
Many in Afghanistan and India’s diplomatic and intelligence establishments firmly believe that the victory of the Taliban could not have come without active assistance from Pakistan. India’s former Ambassador to Kabul, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, even described it as a “Pakistani invasion with an Afghan face” on the basis of certain facts, such as the long-standing relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban, Pakistan’s support to the Taliban in its first takeover of Afghanistan in 1996, the shelter given by Pakistan to the fighters and leaders of the Taliban following the 9/11 US invasion of Afghanistan, etc.
The safe havens for terrorists always existed in Pakistan from the start of the US ‘War on Terror’ in 2001, but the US did not push the Pakistan military sufficiently to act against these safe havens because of the US need for Pakistan for logistics support in the war. In the recent fighting also, the Taliban had the same safe havens in Pakistan which were used to launch attacks in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has always viewed the Taliban as a proxy with two purposes—(i) ensuring the Pakistan military a free pass over Afghanistan territory and (ii) ensuring Pakistan the agency over Afghan routes into Central Asia. India was actively involved in Afghanistan in development activities since 2001, which had unsettled Pakistan. Pakistan denied India the land route for trade with Afghanistan. Therefore, India began developing the Chabahar port in Iran, and planned with Iran for a trade corridor via rail to the Iranian border with Afghanistan at Zaranj, with the India-built Zaranj-Delaram highway, which leads to the heart of Afghanistan. Now, this route may close.
Pakistan is happy with the proxy victory right now in Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s generals and political leaders welcome the second coming of the Taliban, significant sections, including in the military, must think how to guard Pakistan from some aspects of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan: an influx of refugees, for example, would drain Pakistan’s slender resources.
Another concern is that the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan may increase extremism in Pakistan, where many jihadi groups are active. There is every chance of things turning awry for Pakistan with terrorist attacks within its territory. It is claimed that the anti-Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Afghan Taliban are ‘two faces of the same coin’. Earlier, the TTP was regarded as a creation of India. The victory may cause the TTP to increase attacks inside Pakistan.
Although the Afghan Taliban may be thankful to Pakistan for all the help rendered over the years, there is concern in the Pakistan Army that some sections of the Taliban may be difficult to bring to heel. Mullah Baradar, jailed by Pakistan for eight years for being independent-minded, may represent one possible friction point. Pakistan is concerned that the Taliban may also be a new US ploy against China—preventing the Belt and Roads Initiative from taking shape.
Effects of Taliban Takeover on the People of Afghanistan
Fate of Afghan Nationals who Assisted the US A large number of Afghan civilians assisted the US military in Afghanistan and risked their own lives. In the present scenario, they are more desperate than ever to leave, but swift and safe passage to the US may prove elusive, as only a minority qualifies for refugee protection in the US, as per the International Rescue Committee.
Fate of Minorities As the Taliban are in complete control of the country, there is concern about the well-being of the minorities. Leaders of ethnic groups—Uzbek warlord Dostum, Herat strongman Ismail Khan, Hazara leader Karim Khalili, and ethnic Tajiks Amrullah Saleh and Atta Muhammad Noor—have either fled or are being forced to negotiate with the Taliban.
The Hazara community of Afghanistan has for long suffered at the hands of the Taliban and Islamic State due to their ethnicity and religious beliefs. The Taliban vandalised and blew up a statue of the Shia militia leader, Abdul Ali Mazari, in Bamiyan. Mazari was a champion of the Hazaras, and was executed by the Taliban in 1995. The Hazara group is largely found in the mountainous region of Hazarajat in central Afghanistan, and are believed to be descendants of Genghis Khan and his army that overran the region during the 13th century. Hazarajat was annexed and made part of the Afghan empire under Ahmad Shah Durrani around 1773.
Though the Hindus, Sikhs, and Christians form a minuscule proportion of Afghanistan’s population, these minorities fear religious persecution and violence at the hands of the Taliban.
Fallouts of Taliban’s Resurgence on the Region
The disastrously executed withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan is bound to have repercussions on the regional security. Comparisons are being made between America’s panicky withdrawal from Kabul and similar scenes in Vietnam’s Saigon in 1975. The Afghan situation is of more concern because it has implications for a much wider region.
How will India be Affected? According to the Deputy Director of the Asia Program and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center, Michael Kugelman, India not only faces a Taliban government in Afghanistan, but also its two biggest rivals (Pakistan and China), which are deepening their footprints in Afghanistan where India has many equities, investments, and close ties with non-Taliban political leaders.
The return of banned militant groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) could spell huge problems for India’s security forces, already countering hostilities at the LAC (line of actual control) with China and the LoC (line of control) with Pakistan. So, an unfriendly government in Kabul can only complicate India’s strategic options. These groups could now have more ungoverned spaces to carry out attacks against India. The Taliban’s control will also assist the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies to influence outcomes for India. India is likely to have a much smaller role in the development and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.
Under the Taliban, Afghanistan’s trade would be routed through Karachi and Gwadar, and the Indian investment in the Chabahar port could be wasted. That is why the US and China have already centred their connectivity projects from Central Asia through Pakistan, with the newly announced diplomatic quadrilateral group (US-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan). On the other hand, China plans to link the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with the trans-Afghanistan railroad and the Belt and Road Projects.
The Indian-built projects are already under Taliban control. Those which are under construction—check dams, schools, and urban projects—may be suspended.
India is also concerned with the impact on Afghanistan itself owing to the Taliban’s past record in power—erosion of women’s and minority rights, the overturning of a democratic system, and the imposition of the Taliban’s brutal form of justice.
Effects on Other Countries The Taliban takeover is quite likely to affect every nook and corner of the Middle East and North Africa in some way or the other. There are fears that it could result in the re-establishment of the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State groups in Afghanistan. If this were to become a reality, it will not bode well for the region as a whole.
Iran’s relationship with the Taliban has been fraught at times, but cooperative at others. Given the anxiety over the mistreatment by the Taliban of Afghanistan’s Shia population, Shia Iran and the Sunni fundamentalist Taliban are not natural partners.
The Gulf states have closely watched all these developments. Qatar provided a haven for the Taliban during the peace talks. This peace initiative, under US auspices, is now revealed to have been a foil for the Taliban’s ambitions to return to power in its own right.
Saudi Arabia will be unsettled because it is not in Riyadh’s interests for American authority in the region to be undermined, though the Saudis have their own longstanding links with the Taliban.
These developments will also be problematic for moderate Arab allies of the US, including Egypt and Jordan, as these states have their own versions of the Taliban. The American exit will unsettle both Iraq and parts of Syria, which are being maintained by the US.
The developments in Afghanistan will aggravate the problem in Lebanon. Similarly, increased instability in the Middle East would also not be beneficial for Israel.
Since people are leaving Afghanistan, civilians will likely seek refuge in Tajikistan, which lies on Afghanistan’s north-eastern border, adjacent to the Afghan provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, and Balkh. Tajikistan will not only have to deal with refugees but also with security concerns ranging from the export of terrorism to the increase of cross-border drug smuggling.
There are three concerns in Tajikistan—(i) consideration of the sentiments of Afghan-Tajiks, (some have been welcomed in the Taliban’s ranks but the majority passionately reject the group); (ii) the rise in extremism, caused by the dominance of the Taliban, and the impact it will have on radical factions within Tajikistan who aim to establish an Emirate of their own; and (iii) safeguarding its porous border with Afghanistan.
China and Russia are testing American resolve globally, whereas Turkey and Iran seek to fill a vacuum exposed by the American failure.
China and Russia have their own interests in Afghanistan’s future. China has started cultivating the Taliban leaders.
Government Formation in Afghanistan
The Taliban announced the formation of an interim government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on September 7, 2021.
Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, Russia, China, and Iran were invited to the ceremony.
The Taliban dispensation chose the members of its inner high echelons to the top posts, including extremists and wanted terrorists. The government is hardly ‘inclusive’ as promised by the Taliban. It is an all-male cabinet mostly comprising hardliners.
The list of ministers was expanded later in September.
The most important leader is Hibatullah Akhundzada who used to be head of the Sharia courts in the 1990s; though his role today has not yet been spelt out, there is little doubt that he will have supreme oversight of religious and political affairs.
Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhund, an associate of the Islamist militant group, was designated the acting prime minister. He was a minister in the previous Taliban government. He is on the UN blacklist and has the dubious fame of having led the destruction of the heritage statues of the Buddha at Bamiyan.
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was made the first Deputy Prime Minister. He is the co-founder of the Taliban and was imprisoned from 2010 till 2018. He led the peace talks with the US paving the way for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Maulvi Abdul Salam Hanafi is the second Deputy Prime Minister. Also on the peace negotiating team at Doha, he is reported to have been in charge of the narcotics business that raised revenues for the Taliban.
Alhaj Mullah Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani Network, is in charge of interior affairs. He is on the ‘global terrorist’ list of the US.
The other ministers are: Maulvi Muhammad Yaqoob (defence); Maulvi Ameer Khan Muttaqi (foreign affairs); Mullah Hidayatullah Badri or Gul Agha (finance); Sheikh Maulvi Nurullah Munir (education); Mullah Khairullah Khairkhwa (information and broadcasting); Qari Din Mohammad Hanif (economic affairs); Sheikh Noor Muhammad Saqib (hajj and auqaf); Maulvi Abdul Hakim (law); Mullah Noorullah Noori (border and tribal affairs); Mullah Muhammad Younas Akhundzada (development); Sheikh Muhammad Khalid (dawat and irshaad—religious preaching); Mullah Abdul Mannan Umeri (public works); Mullah Muhammad Essa Akhund (minerals and petroleum); Mullah Abdul Latif Mansoor (water and power); Hameedullah Akhundzada (civil aviation and transport); Abdul Baki Haqqani (higher education); Najibullah Haqqani (communication); Khalil ur Rehman Haqqani (refugees); Abdul Haq Waseeq (intelligence chief); Haji Muhammad Idris (in charge Afghanistan Bank); Maulvi Ahmed Jan Ahmedi (in charge administrative affairs); Mullah Muhammad Fazil Mazloom Akhund (deputy to defence minister); Qari Faseehuddin (army chief); Sher Muhammad Abbas Stanakzai (deputy to foreign minister); Maulvi Noor Jalal (deputy to interior minister); Zabiullah Mujahid (deputy to minister of information and broadcasting); Mullah Taj Mir Jawad (first deputy to intelligence chief); Mullah Rehmatullah Najib (administrative deputy to intelligence chief); Mullah Abdul Haq (special assistant to interior minister).
Issue of International Recognition to the Taliban Government
The big question is: Has the global community recognised the Taliban’s legitimacy? There is no categorical answer. There is no clear-cut statement from either the UK or the US. On the ground, officials of both nations and other European powers are also dealing with the Taliban directly. Even India had contacted some of the Taliban leaders through its political office in Doha.
China, however, has begun cautiously signalling that it may recognise the Taliban as a legitimate regime. Russia, Pakistan, and China have been operating their embassies in Kabul.
Most nations are still dithering on taking a stand whether or not to recognise the Taliban government. international funding to Afghanistan has been frozen and there is talk of not negotiating with the Taliban till a clear vision emerges as to how they are going to function.
As for India, some criticise that India showed a lack of vision in failing to talk with the Taliban and make a deal with them. Can India really make a friend out of the Taliban against Pakistan, given the nexus between the Taliban and Pakistan, and the hand of the ISI in the present dispensation in Afghanistan? As a principle, it would be a betrayal of the people of Afghanistan, especially the women, and their quest for rights, even though idealism gets short shrift amidst geopolitical interests.
Despite the inclusion of radical elements in the new government, the Taliban has been putting up a more moderate front and promised not to take revenge on their old enemies. Taliban spokesman in Qatar, Suhail Shaheen, said in an interview to National Public Radio (NPR), “Now we have a policy that we do not have any kind of discrimination against the Shia people. They are Afghans. They can live in this country peacefully and they can contribute to the reconstruction, prosperity, and development of the country.” But no one is sure whether this is rhetoric or is it to be believed to be true. The choice of ministers does not reflect a ‘moderate’ stance.
More Developments
India and US Discuss Cross-Border Terrorism in Afghanistan On August 30, 2021, the UNSC resolution, under India’s presidency of the global body, talked about the need for upholding human rights in Afghanistan, and demanded that the soil of Afghanistan should not be used for terrorism and that a negotiated political settlement to the crisis should be found out. They highlighted their perspective on the role of Pakistan and the related concerns.
Talks between British Prime Minister’s Envoy and the Taliban The special envoy of the British prime minister, senior civil servant Simon Gass, talked with the deputy prime ministers and senior members of Afghanistan’s new Taliban government on October 5, 2021. They discussed how the UK could help Afghanistan in resolving the humanitarian crisis, ‘terrorism,’ the treatment of minorities, and the rights of women. As per the Taliban’s foreign ministry spokesman, Abdul Qahar Balkhi, the meeting “focused on detailed discussions about reviving diplomatic relations between both countries”.
US Resumes Afghan Refugee Flights The US is reported to soon resume Afghan refugee flights in a massive campaign to vaccinate them against measles following a small outbreak that caused a three-week pause in evacuations. The measles outbreak, detected in 24 people, had put on hold one of the largest refugee resettlement efforts, known as Operation Allies Welcome.
Conditions for Recognition of the Taliban Referring to the G20 summit due to take place in Rome later this month, President Macron of France, on October 5, 2021, said that there must be talk about Afghanistan. The Europeans, the Americans, China, Russia, the big powers of Africa, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America should all come together and convey a very clear message to Afghanistan that they will set conditions for the recognition of the Taliban government. The conditions must include equality for women, access for foreign humanitarian operations, and non-cooperation with Islamist terror groups.
UN Special Rapporteur to be Appointed in Afghanistan On October 7, 2021, the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution brought by the European Union to have a special rapporteur to ensure continued monitoring, through a dedicated and independent expert, and to help prevent a further deterioration of the human rights situation in Afghanistan. Twenty-eight out of 47, countries voted in favour, 14 abstained, and five—China, Pakistan, Russia, Eritrea, and Venezuela—voted against the move.
Taliban to Participate in Afghanistan Conference in Moscow On October 20, 2021, Russia will invite representatives of the Taliban to international talks on Afghanistan in Moscow, following a G20 summit on Afghanistan on October 12 to help the country avoid a humanitarian catastrophe in the country. Russia has also called on the Taliban not to launch any offensives during the coming months. Russia is worried about the possibility of ‘Islamist extremists’ infiltrating the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, and has held military exercises in Tajikistan.
World Food Programme Discussions with India The UN World Food Programme (WFP) is in discussions with India for donating wheat to the war-torn Afghanistan. There is a wheat deficit of 2.5 million tonnes this year in Afghanistan. Last year, India had donated 75,000 metric tonnes of wheat as aid for Afghan citizens.
The Taliban
The word ‘Taliban’ means ‘students’ in the Pashto language. The Taliban emerged in 1994 around the southern Afghan city of Kandahar. They fought a civil war following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan and subsequent collapse of the government. The Taliban consisted of members from so-called ‘mujahideen’ fighters who had repelled the Soviet forces in the 1980s with support from the US.
Within two years, the Taliban gained sole control over most of the country, and proclaimed an Islamic emirate in 1996, imposing on the country a harsh interpretation of the Islamic law. Their original leader was Mulla Mohammad Omar.
The Haqqani Network
The Haqqani Network is an extremist group, headed by Sirajuddin Haqqani, also the Afghan Taliban’s deputy leader. The Haqqani network is suspected to have links with Pakistan’s military establishment. The US Admiral Mike Mullen had described it in 2011 as a ‘veritable arm’ of Pakistani intelligence. The network has been behind the attacks across Afghanistan since the US invasion. The Haqqanis are known for their heavy use of suicide bombers. The deadly network is also accused of kidnapping westerners for ransom and assassinating Afghan officials. The network is allied with the Taliban and is permanently sheltered in Pakistan’s North Waziristan, and is considered to have strong links with the Al-Qaeda.
© Spectrum Books Pvt Ltd.