Introduction
Recently, Niger, a landlocked country in West Africa, witnessed a complex interplay of political turbulence. The military in Niger detained Mohamed Bazoum, the country’s president, and his family. A group of soldiers appeared on the State-run television to announce that they had overthrown the government of Niger.
The military head, Abdourahamane Tchiani, declared himself the leader of the government and cited ‘continued deterioration of the security situation’ and ‘poor economic and social governance’ as the reasons for the military takeover.’ He backed the putschists, claiming it was ‘to avoid a deadly confrontation’.
This is not the country’s first attempt at a coup. Four coups have been attempted in Niger since it gained independence from France in 1960.
Niger, a country in the Sahel region (consisting of countries like Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal), has a weakly diversified economy with 40 per cent of its GDP coming from agriculture. It shares its borders with Algeria in the northwest, Libya in the northeast, Chad in the east, Nigeria in the south, Bonin and Burkina Faso on the southwest and Mali in the west. The Niger river, which runs through the southwest corner of the country’s area, gives it its name. With a land area of almost 1,270,000 sq. km, more than 80 per cent of its land lies in the Sahara. Its capital is Niawey.
Factors Responsible for the Coup
Political instability The chapter of instability began in 2012, when the then dormant Tuareg uprising, which had occurred in northern Mali in the 1960s, 1990s, and 2006, revived and spilled beyond the country’s boundaries. Since then, no stable government formed until Bazoum took office in 2021 in the country’s first peaceful democratically-held elections.
Economic challenges and corruption Weak governments, typically made up of elites from certain ethnic groupings, regularly engaged in corruption, and were unable to record economic and social progress. Economic difficulties, such as high unemployment, inflation, and corruption, contributed to a climate that led to the takeover.
Ethnic and regional divisions Various coexisting ethnic groups of the country, such as the Hausa, Tuareg, Fulani, and Zarma, contribute to its cultural richness as well as periodic tensions. The Tuareg demand greater autonomy, which has resulted in frequent clashes.
Armed forces’ role Despite increased foreign forces, particularly from the United States and France, as well as military bases in Niger, the government has been unable to halt insurgent attacks.
External influence There are various insurgency groups operating in the country, including Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, as well as Boko Haram. Thousands of people have died and been displaced because of these attacks during the last decade.
Public dissatisfaction Widespread dissatisfaction with the government, coupled with limited avenues for change, local civilian militias were supported by ethnic tensions and uprisings, which sparked a wave of bloodshed and human rights abuse.
Did the Military Takeover Lessen the Violence?
There is no hard evidence that military takeovers restore order or reduce bloodshed. According to the crisis monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), recent military coups have produced regional instability and the weakening of governmental institutions. It found that the number of reported deaths from political violence grew by 77 per cent in Burkina Faso and 150 per cent in Mali between 2021 and 2022.
According to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies (ACSS), certain coups have become a vehicle for politicised security elites to seize power under the guise of restoring security and order. According to the ACSS, Niger has seen economic improvement and increased public accountability during the last decade of democratically elected regimes.
Role of France, USA, and Russia
Following military takeovers and anti-French sentiment in neighbouring Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad since 2020, Niger has become a democratic outlier in the Sahel region. Mali expelled the French ambassador last year after he disagreed with the junta’s plan to stay in power until 2025, and Burkina Faso’s military administration similarly declared the termination of its military pact with France and demanded that Paris evacuate its troops within a month. Following its withdrawal from Mali last year, France relocated around 1,000 people to Niger.
Due to anti-French sentiments, there is a possibility that Niger will open its doors to Russian influence. Furthermore, the West, particularly France, has accused Russia of spreading disinformation in Africa. France announced last month that it had discovered Russian-linked disinformation campaigns in the region targeting the French government.
Niger plays a significant role in America’s Africa strategy, becoming a vital partner in Washington’s struggle against Islamist rebels, who have murdered thousands and displaced millions. Local forces have been trained by the US$ US military personnel to combat extremist groups. The US claims to have invested over 500 million in Niger’s security since 2012. There are around 1,100 US military personnel in Niger, stationed at two locations.
Now that Niger has fallen into the hands of a military-led government, it is uncertain whether the US and European countries will be able to influence the Sahel region security through Niger.
Impact and Implications
Political uncertainty While a power struggle may have sparked the coup, its formal origins may be traced back to frustrations over governance and the government’s reaction to security threats posed by extremist groups such as Al Qaeda and Daesh. Concerns have been raised regarding potential disruptions to uranium imports for European nuclear facilities because of the regime shift.
Human rights concerns After the coup, Nigeria might devolve into an armed uprising and provide a new front for terrorist groups operating there leading to human rights abuses, crackdowns on dissent, and restrictions on civil liberties.
Economic disruption The coup’s disruption of economic activities could exacerbate this vulnerability and destabilise the entire region. Economic instability often follows coups due to disruptions in governance, investment, and trade.
Development setbacks Coups can hinder development efforts, divert resources away from social services, and impact poverty reduction. Frequent coups can establish a cycle of political instability and military dominance, impeding democratic progress. Military interventions can exacerbate security challenges, such as insurgency and terrorism.
Regional impact It would significantly undermine trust between Western countries and what seems to be a less-than-stable Niger, and it might at worst cause a serious rupture in the relationships between the two nations. Disengagement from foreign partners would have dire repercussions in a nation that depends on about USD 2 billion in official development assistance annually, according to the World Bank. Coups can destabilise entire regions by triggering refugee flows, cross-border conflicts, and economic repercussions.
Way Forward
The African Union has given the Niger junta a 15-day deadline to reinstall the country’s democratically elected government. The West African bloc of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) conducted an emergency session aimed at finding a diplomatic solution, but also considering sectional or military intervention, if necessary. Finally, a stronger long-term approach is needed with respect to coups to eliminate the negative socioeconomic and political conditions in national and international politics that allow immediate sources of political instability to hide behind a democratic facade.
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