The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) released 2020-21 La Nina advisory—Potential impacts on agriculture and food security in high-risk countries, in December 2020. The advisory gives a general review of the historical effect of La Nina as well as an outlook of its potential impact on agriculture in 2020-21. It also provides clear-cut recommendations on actions to be taken to reduce the impacts of La Nina before it results in a large-scale food security emergency.
La Nina literally means ‘the little girl’. The phenomenon was first identified by Latin American fishermen in the early 17th century.
It is a recurrent global atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon characterised by a decrease in sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a sustained strengthening of the trade winds. A La Nina event develops approximately every two to seven years and lasts from six months to two years. The intensity of this climatic phenomenon generally reaches its peak between October and January. A global La Nina event occurs when the central Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere show signs of certain atypical conditions for a prolonged period of time (usually over a period of three months). La Nina increases the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in some parts of the world and of drought, through reduced rainfall in others. In some instances, and for some regions, the impact of La Nina also depends on its interaction with other climatic events, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Highlights of the FAO Advisory
As per the advisory, the event of a moderate to strong La Nina in the second half of 2020 has been responsible for extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world. This La Nina event happened after a period of nine years. The last strong La Nina event was from late 2010 to early 2011. This was followed by a moderate event from 2011 to 2012 and a weak one from 2017 to 2018. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the recent episode of La Nina is expected to last into 2021. It would affect temperatures, precipitation, and storm patterns in different regions of the world. WMO declared the development of a La Nina episode in October 2020.
The extent to which a La Nina episode affects agriculture and food security depends on a complex interaction of different factors like meteorological, seasonality, and vulnerability.
The 2010-12 event was one of the series events of La Nina that caused severe of flood in Pakistan in 2010. A La Nina event also caused powerful tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean from 2010-12 hurricane seasons.
The impact patterns are not consistent and do not necessarily occur during every event of La Nina. Moreover, it is the intensity of a particular La Nina event that determines the severity of its global impacts. But the potential impact of even a weak or moderate episode cannot be undermined. A weak or moderate event may also create serious humanitarian crisis in some regions by impacting agricultural sector. Due to this uncertainty in predicting the impact of any particular event, it becomes quite pertinent to systematically analyse weather forecasts, identify vulnerabilities, and determine risks.
Framework for Anticipatory Action Immediately after the severe effect of 2015 and 2016 EI Nino, the humanitarian and development community strongly suggested a framework. The framework was meant for guiding the countries to monitor and mitigate both El Nino and La Nina events. As a result, an ‘Inter-Agency Standard Operating Procedure’ for early action to El Nino and La Nina episodes was developed by FAO and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) along with other global partners.
The Spanish word El Nino means ‘the little boy’. It is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the ‘warm phase’ of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereas La Nina is the ‘cool phase’ of ENSO. The phenomenon was first recognised by fishers off the coast of Peru. Scientists use the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) to measure deviations from normal sea surface temperatures. ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation. It influences temperature and precipitation across the global.
Identification of High-risk Countries : The probability of a La Nina event taking place in July 2020 rose to 55 per cent. In this context, the global partners led by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Global Cell of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), which includes the FAO, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), UNICEF, the WMO, the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Food Programme, and others, carried out an analysis to identify the countries at high risk of La Nina impacts. A list of high-risk countries was prepared in September 2020 on the basis of following information:
- The historically impacted countries of La Nina were identified with the help of the map developed by International Research Institute (IRI) of the Columbia University. This rainfall map provided information on the specific weather conditions, like dry or wet, prevailing in those countries.
- Global and regional seasonal forecasts for the period from October 2020 to March 2021 were factored into identifying countries experiencing irregular rainfall prospects and also likely experience the impact of La Nina.
- The INFORM Global Risk Index (GRI) provided country-specific thresholds for vulnerability and lack of coping capacity.
- Agricultural seasonality analysis was taken into account in order to determine the stage of crop growth that could be affected and its effect on food security.
- Additional aggravating factors such as health, security, and macro-economic constraints to analyse the extent to which countries would be vulnerable to additional shocks were considered.
- Expert opinion and technical judgement were analysed to determine the extent of vulnerability.
Region-wise High Risk Countries
The 2020-2021 La Ninaepisode puts some countries in Southern Africa, Great Horn of Africa, and Asia and Pacific at high risk of incurring agricultural losses.
Regions in the Greater Horn of Africa countries facing dry conditions include Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. The Greater Horn of Africa Region (GHR) comprises of eleven countries.
In Southern Africa, countries facing wet conditions are Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe.
High risk countries facing dry conditions in Southwest Asia and the Near East include Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan.
The Countries of East Asia and the Pacific Islands region facing wet and dry conditions include Indonesia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga and Vanuatu (above average rainfall); the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Kiribati (drier than normal conditions).
The list of high-risk countries is not exhaustive, fixed or final. The list is a result of global analysis and needs to be verified against new and more detailed national forecasts along with a minute understanding of risk and vulnerability. Moreover, the countries included in the high-risk list are not the only countries that could be impacted by a La Nina event; rather, they just need to be prioritised for international support in further analysis and anticipatory action.
The advisory does not contain a separate section on countries in the Americas. Some countries of the region have already seen the impact of the interplay of La Lina conditions, and the potential for further impact exists. As such, the regions and countries at risk should continue to precisely monitor meteorological forecasts keeping in consideration the level of risk and its variable pattern.
Concerns
The impact that La Nina might have on agricultural production particularly on the main global producers could impact food security in high risk countries. Low food production could lead to lower exports of food staples and higher international prices, affecting consumers in net food-importing developing nations. In the Circumstances, the conditions in the main food producing countries need to be continuously monitored at the international level. The advisory is of great importance to take preparatory measures and help in risk assessment and management in view of La Nina effects.