On November 10, 2020, Russia mediated a new peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The deal which is meant to end the conflict between the two countries that had been in serious war for over six weeks rendering thousands of people homeless and taking more than 1,200 lives. As per the new peace deal, both sides will now maintain positions in the areas that they currently hold. This deal will benefit Azerbaijan because it has regained more than 15–20 per cent of its lost territory in the course of the war. Azerbaijan will have control over areas of Nagorno-Karabakh that it has captured during the conflict. Armenia has agreed to cease hold of other adjacent areas.
This move was welcomed by many nations and international organisations. In these circumstances, Russia seems to have reinforced its influence in the South Caucasus.
Armenians are mostly Christians, whereas the population of Azerbaijan comprises mainly Shia Muslims. The region has been experiencing ethnic conflicts for the last two decades.
Background
When the Soviet Union was founded in the 1920s, Armenia and Azerbaijan became a part of it. The Soviets granted the Azerbaijan control over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians were the major ethnic group in that region.
During the fall of the Soviet Union in late 1980s, the regional parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh had officially voted to become a part of Armenia. Azerbaijan was against this decision, which initially led to ethnic clashes between the two countries. The conflicts continued, leading to a full-scale war after their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Several people died and millions were displaced due to massacres committed by both, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The most affected were the Azerbaijanis.
Before Russia mediated a ceasefire in 1994, Armenia had taken command of Nagorno-Karabakh and its adjacent areas. After ceasefire, though Nagorno-Karabakh remained a part of Azerbaijan, it was mostly governed as a separatist, self-declared republic, run by ethnic Armenians and backed by the Armenian government. It came to be known as the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh. This led to the formation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The peace negotiations were mediated by multiple international bodies, including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which was formed in 1992 and chaired by France, Russia, and the United States.
Despite these negotiations, the clashes continued and failed to deliver a peace agreement. In 2016, many of the troops on both sides died due to a violent clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The conflict between these two nations was complicated by the geo-politics of the region. Turkey recognised Azerbaijan’s independence in 1991 and shut its border with Armenia in support of Azerbaijan during the war over Nagorno-Karabakh in 1993. Meanwhile, Armenia, which has had good relations with Russia, allowed Russia to set up a military base on their soil. Despite this, Russia continued to maintain good relations with Azerbaijan.
In 2018, after the free elections in Armenia, protest leader, Nikol Pashinyan, became the prime minister of country, overthrowing its long-time ruler, Serzh Sargsyan.
Nikol Pashinyan, struck a deal with Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, to de-escalate tensions between the two countries. He also allowed Azerbaijan to set up the first military hotline between the two countries. However, in August 2019, Nikol Pashinyan declared that Nagorno-Karabakh belonged to Armenia. His remark angered Ilham Aliyev, who repeatedly condemned the statement.
In July 2020, a fight broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan on their international border. Turkey’s military was in support of Azerbaijan and took active part in the war. Fierce fighting broke out in mid-September in which thousands of people were killed and many were displaced.
Russia’s Role
Russia has a security agreement with Armenia called the collective security treaty organisation. In the early days of the war, it remained neutral, but when Turkey came in support of Azerbaijan, Russia tried to negotiate a ceasefire, but could not succeed. The Armenian prime minister sought Russian help when Azerbaijan defeated Armenian troops and captured territories. But the Russian president said that the security guarantee was the Armenian but was not concerned with the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia took a passive stand initally but remained concerned about the rapid change in the status quo, particularly because of Turkey’s aggresive role in its backyard.
Finally, Russia set up small military outposts along the Armenian border, apparently to check the conflict from spilling into mainland Armenia as well as to send a message to Azerbaijan. At the same time, Russia conducted a massive air strike in Syria’s Idlib against Turkish-backed militants as a warning to Turkey. Though Russia accepted Azerbaijan’s victory, it saved Armenia from total defeat. Thus, both sides agreed to ceasefire under pressure from Russia.
Terms of the New Peace Deal:
- Both sides will now maintain positions in the areas that they currently hold.
- Both the hostile nations would exchange prisoners of war and the bodies of those killed.
- Armenian forces would withdraw from Armenian-occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh by December 01, 2020.
- Around 2,000 soldiers of the Russian Ground Forces would be deployed for a minimum of five years, along the Line of Contact and the Lachin corridor linking Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region, for peacekeeping.
- Armenia would ensure the safety of transport links between the Nakhchivan exclave of Azerbaijan and mainland Azerbaijan by unblocking the routes. Russian troops would also exercise control over the transport communication, as instructed by the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation.
- Internally displaced persons and refugees would be allowed to return to the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh and its adjacent areas as regulated by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees.
Reactions
- After the ceasefire deal was struck, there were jubilant scenes in Azerbaijan and the news was celebrated nationwide. However, the people of Armenia were upset with the ceasefire deal and there was unrest and protest in front of the government buildings and Parliament of Armenia. The protesters demanded the resignation of the prime minister.
- In Nagorno-Karabakh, the leaders admitted that if the fighting had continued, the main city of Stepanakert would have been lost within days.
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan said that the agreement was of historic importance and amounted to a capitulation by Armenia. However, the Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, stated that his decision for ceasefire was based on deep analysis of the combat situation and in discussion with best experts of the field. He was not ready to admit defeat. The self-proclaimed President of Nagorno-Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan said that a ceasefire was unavoidable because, if the conflict had continued, the whole of Karabakh would have been lost.
The recent conflict shows that the Russian dominance could be challenged in the region. Turkey supported Azerbaijan against Russia’s wishes. Turkish Parliament approved sending troops to the region to join an observation post though the ceasefire mandates that only Russia can deploy peacekeepers. Now, if Turkey continues to play an assertive role in the region via Azerbaijan, Russia would have to face a new rival in its neighbourhood.
It cannot, therefore, be said that the war is over, rather it has altered the balance of power in favour of Azerbaijan. For now, Azerbaijan is triumphant, stopping short of taking the entire Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is wounded, Russia is cautious, and Turkey is ambitious. The truce is fragile because the dispute is still unresolved