The Issue According to the UN’s World population prospects 2019, India is projected to become the most populous country by 2027 surpassing China and host 1.64 billion people by 2050. The major implications of population growth will be for the young population that will face a situation of lack of resources in the future. The challenge is not about how to contain the population but about how the government exploits the population growth to its best economic advantages, i.e., how the government trains this large young population to make it productive, effective, competent, and contributing to the economic growth. The key message from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2019 report is that national leaders must redouble their efforts to raise education, health and living standards for people everywhere.
The World Population Prospects 2019, published by the population division, the UN Department of economic and social affairs, said that the world’s population is expected to increase by two billion people in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.
World Population Prospects—2019
The 2019 revision of the world population prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the United Nations population estimates and projections. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,690 national population censuses, conducted between 1950 and 2018, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,700 nationally representative sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional, and country levels.
The Indian Context According to the population prospects, India is expected to add 273 million people by 2050 and will remain the most populated country until the end of the century. India leads the set of nine countries that will make up for more than half the projected growth of the global population by 2050. It is expected to remain the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China at 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the United States with 434 million, and Pakistan with an estimated population of 403 million.
India’s population has been growing at a much faster rate than China’s, with the poorer regions contributing the most to that growth. India’s population has blown up from 555.2 million in 1970 to 1,366.4 million now, a 146 per cent expansion.
On the other hand, the world as a whole could be home to 8.5 billion people in just over a decade from now, and the number could go up to 9.7 billion by mid-century.
Factors Affecting Population Growth
Fertility Rate While China registered a population growth of 73 per cent in 1970s, India expanded to 146 per cent in the same period. In this period, China followed the decision of one- child policy. Due to this policy, China saw its total fertility rate (TFR), average number of children per woman, decline from 6.30 in 1965–1970 to 5.41 in 1970–1975 after the two-child policy was introduced and further after the one-child policy was implemented. Now, China has the TFR of 1.69 while India’s fertility rate is currently about 2.24. India’s fertility rate widely varies across states with Tamil Nadu and West Bengal (1.6), Bihar (3.3), and Uttar Pradesh (3.1). The fertility rate in the rural areas is much higher than in the urban areas. It is projected that in 2020, India’s population will be 28.43 years compared to 38.4 years in China. In India, the TFR varies significantly across the socio-economic groups: it is concentrated among economically weaker sections of the society which has implications for SDGs, poverty, hunger, malnutrition, health, education, etc.
Socio-economic Development The crucial factor that affects population growth is low socio-economic development. It is found that while Uttar Pradesh has lower literacy rate and a small number of the women receive complete antenatal care, Kerala in contrast has almost 100 per cent literacy rate and almost every woman receives antenatal care. Kerala records an average of two children per couple. Education of women brings fertility rate down.
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Infant Mortality The study shows high infant mortality rate creates a desire for more children. The infant mortality rate (IMR), deaths of infants per 1000 live births, was 151 in India in 1961, and now it stands at 33. In most of the developed countries, this figure is less than 5.
Early Marriage and Male Child Preference In some populated states, child marriage is openly prevalent, despite laws to debar the practice. Though there is a decline in the trend but child marriage continues to be high in India. Girls getting married before 18 years of age in India has declined from 47 per cent in 2005–2006 to 27 per cent in 2015–2016. But in states like Bihar, West Bengal, and Rajasthan, it accounts for 40 per cent in these states. Early marriage is considered as leading to increase in population, and putting the woman’s health at risk. In India, the desire for a male child leads to higher birth rates.
Initiatives for Population Control Indian policy makers don’t have a comprehensive vision on population control. The importance of population control was felt just after independence, and in 1952, a population policy committee was created that suggested the appointment of a Family Planning Research and Programmes Committee in 1953. Accordingly, the Central Family Planning Board was created in 1956. It emphasised sterilisation as the only method for curbing down the rising population. Till 1960, there didn’t exist any strong population control policy in India. The first five-year plan visioned to find out the factors contributing to the rapid increase of population and find suitable techniques of family planning and devise methods by which knowledge of these techniques could be widely disseminated. In the 5th plan, ‘maternal and child health and nutrition services’ were included as an integral part of the family planning programme. But the population of India grew at a faster pace and was called a ‘population explosion’, despite efforts to curb it. It was only in April 1976 that the First National Population Policy was framed which suggested a wide spectrum of programmes including raising the statutory age of marriage, introducing monetary incentives, paying special attention to improving female literacy, etc. In 1993, an expert group under the chairmanship of M.S. Swaminathan was appointed to prepare a draft on a new population policy and it submitted its report in 1994. Finally in February 2000, the Government of India came out with the second population policy that affirmed the commitment of the government towards voluntary and informed choice and consent of the citizens. Accordingly, the government revised the PNDT Act in 2003, which was enacted in 1994. The main aim of the Act was to check female embryo infanticide.
Mission Parivar Vikas Mission Parivar Vikas was launched with the aim of increasing the access to contraceptives and family planning services in 145 high fertility districts of seven states. These states had a total fertility rate (TFR) of 3 and above.
Jansankhya Sthirata Kos (JSK) A Jansankhya Sthirata Kos (JSK) (national population stabilisation fund) was set up as an autonomous society of the ministry of health and family welfare in 2005. In addition to it, JSK has adopted some specific strategies for population control. It launched strategies to push up the age of marriage of girls, coerce couples to delay their first child and give space between the first childbirth and the second childbirth, link the birth of children to the interest of the health of young mothers and infants, etc. The couples who adopted this strategy were awarded suitably. This helped change the mindsets of the community.
Challenges of Population Explosion It has been found that the growing population of India poses more challenges than opportunities. India may have a vast number of young people and insufficient natural resources left for exploitation. The country will need to invest in augmenting its education and healthcare system, grow more food, provide more housing, sharply increase its drinking water supply and add capacity to basic infrastructures, such as roads, transport, electricity and sewage to provide a minimum quality of life to every citizen. All these expansion works need more funds. There is every possibility of raising taxes. Employing new entrants in the workforce will be a big challenge. Even if less than five million people are entering the workforce every year, employing them at a decent wage is a difficult task. It is observed that jobs are not created at the rate they need to be and growth is uneven. It is important to nurture and exploit the population growth to the best economic vantages and this is a big challenge. It is equally important to raise India’s economic status from being low middle country to at least a high middle-income country. Share of older people in the population is in rapid rise. The growth for older population is 70 per cent from now to 2050 when the total population is growing only by 56 per cent. In this context, the report expressed concern that migration to countries with a falling ratio of working-age people to those above 65 will be steady, as those economies favour workers to sustain economic production. There is a chance that Indian youths can fill the gap in countries like Japan, Europe, and Caribbean if they are properly trained. It is also forecasted that the demand for a competent workforce below 65 of age will be in high demand in countries like North America, Eastern and Southern Asia but India is not in a position to mobilise its unemployed enlarging youths for work in these places as they are not properly skilled. So, migration rate will drop and this will put extra burden on the Indian economy. Therefore, preparing for the changes and opportunities migration offers will depend on a ‘skill revolution‘. The rise of life expectancy has brought with it a policy imperative that is bound to become even more important in the coming decades. As the growing population of adults is a certainty and there is no possibility of migration for them, it is important to open up prospects for employment in many new services according to their capability.
The aspiration of the women and families have been changed with time; they now want fewer children but lack access to family planning. But the real challenge is quality of life: some 21 per cent of the 60 plus population is suffering from chronic morbidities. Moreover, an unequal rate of population growth among states is a cause of major concern.
In order to meet the sustainable development goals (SDGs) under population growth, it is suggested in the report that Indian urban facilities need a reformation. The suggested roadmap advises to develop—accessing to good, affordable housing and mobility. The report seeks support from state machinery and strong civil society participation to meet the challenges like poverty reduction, better nutrition, universal education, and health care. To ensure nutrition for all, it is imperative to make agriculture financially viable and food price stable.
Achieving a reduction in fertility rates in states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh is a big challenge for the stabilisation of population growth.
Way Forward Providing income to the emerging new workforce needs immediate attention. Therefore, it is necessary to implement a ‘universal basic income’ as a social safety valve, for which tax compliance needs to improve. Managing forest and water resources for future generations must assume centre stage in policy-making, calling for a paradigm shift in the notion of development. The society, particularly women in rural India, should be provided education and care that will bring out a positive result in population control motivating them to have a lesser number of children.
Conclusion India is set to become the most populous nation. Analysts believe that India’s growing population can be a double-edged sword and the country needs to put in place the right policies to maximise the potential of its people by enhancing the state of education, health and infrastructure so that India figures at a better rank in various human development rankings. The nation needs to find ways to contain population growth without using any force. The poor, populous northern states must make planned advances in women’s literacy, health and participation in the workforce, following the model of the southern states. This calls for challenging the socio-cultural mores.
After the prime minister’s Independence Day speech concerning the issue of population control, there have been ongoing debates, campaigns, and demands for the implementation of coercive population control policies in India. In this context, China’s model of two-child or one-child norm demonstrates adverse outcomes. The global experiences around the enforcement of a population control law reveal its potentially disastrous consequences. A coercive population control policy will violate fundamental human rights with maximum impact on the poorest, weakest, and most marginalised sections of a country. India with its large proportion of young persons will take some time before the results of declining fertility start showing up explicitly. The only way to slow down the momentum is to delay age at marriage, delay the first pregnancy and ensure spacing between births.
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