The Covid-19 crisis has turned the world public opinion against China in ways that were unimaginable a few months ago. China is being widely held responsible for a cover-up and a delay in the global response to the virus. Country after country is rethinking its economic relationship with China. Understanding this to maintain credibility, Chinese President Xi Jinping used the term ‘the Tacitus Trap’ while instructing his government machinery. China, an authoritarian country, is facing a credibility crisis because of their close door policy and control over information. It was a way of acknowledging the damage to China’s credibility and reputation at the global level. However, it is doubtful that the Chinese government will follow the spirit.
The Tacitus Trap
The concept of the Tacitus Trap apparently posits that ‘neither good nor bad policies would please the governed if the government is unwelcome’. It describes a condition where a government loses credibility, whether it tells the truth or a lie, to do good or bad, will be considered a lie or to do bad.
In a wide sense, ‘Tacitus trap’ refers to the trend of people treating everything, whether true or false, as a lie when the government or an organisation loses its credibility. In his Histories, Publius Cornelius Tacitus wrote that once the people bear a grudge against an emperor, all the good and bad things he does makes them hate. When the government loses the people’s trust, nobody believes the truth.
The theory of Tacitus trap was brought up in a 2007 book by Pan Zhichang. In the book, he quoted Tacitus’ remark on Galba, an unpopular monarch of Rome, to explain the recurrent declines of the Chinese dynasties throughout the history.
The term has been mentioned by both the government and Chinese scholarship. President Xi Jinping has frequently stressed the need to avoid the Tacitus Trap, and apparently he regards losing credibility as a prelude to losing ‘the ruling foundation’ and ‘the ruling status’ of the Communist Party.
Tacitus was a historian of the Roman Empire (AD c. 56–117) who wrote at least five histories of the period, which have had significant influence on Western philosophy over centuries and seems to have gained many powerful admirers in China.
China and USA are in a ‘Tacitus trap’ as they face deep internal challenges. Their governments are losing credibility, and this was all the more apparent during the COVID-19 outbreak.
The China outbreak revealed long-standing deficiencies inside China’s local administrations, which may pose a threat to the credibility of local governments across the country.
People’s distrust in the Wuhan government is based on certain occurrences. The first cases of the mysterious coronavirus lung illness were reported in Wuhan early in December 2019 itself. Though the distribution of cases indicated a tight relationship between the virus and a seafood market in Wuhan, the market was closed only in January 2020, after its illegal sale of wild animals was reported by more than one media outlet. Even after the local health commission confirmed that 27 citizens had been infected by the virus late December, the Wuhan government kept silent from January 6 to 17, during which time Wuhan held its 14th People’s Congress meeting and 13th committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference were held. Warnings were not given to the people. It was only when ‘SARS fighter’ pulmonologist Zhong Nanshan revealed to the public that the novel coronavirus had indications of person-to-person transmission on January 20, then warnings were given. Throughout the first 20 days of January, the Wuhan government was silent, it allowed a potluck banquet to celebrate the New Year holiday, with more than 40,000 families attending, and even issued 200,000 free travel tickets to the public.
This reluctant administrative response is seen as the reason for the spread of the virus that led to a nationwide crisis. The situation got worse when some suspected cases rushed to other regions outside Wuhan during the Chinese New Year, right before the city was ‘closed.’
It was clear that the Wuhan government had lost the people’s trust. There was severe criticism of the government in social media. The public fumed as even while the Wuhan government earned a failing grade for controlling the early spread of new virus, it was suppressing public opinion well. For instance, citizens were swiftly arrested for spreading ‘misinformation’ about the new virus and journalists’ interviews with local hospitals were interrupted.
The public became even angrier and more disappointed at the mayor Zhou Xianwang when he confirmed that 5 million people had left Wuhan, partly because of the flawed policy of closing the city. When the mayor said he was willing to resign as long as it helps control the spread of virus, people refused to accept his offer and showed no sympathy.
The Wuhan coronavirus revealed the long-standing inefficiencies, lack of transparency, and lazy politics inside China’s local administrations, which may pose a threat to the credibility of local governments across the country.
This was not the first time that the Chinese government had shown a lackadaisical attitude towards a major catastrophe. There was the earlier instance of SARS, a serious form of pneumonia that plagued the Chinese people in 2003, there are some striking similarities in both cases—2003 SARS and Covid-19—where the attitude of the Chinese government is concerned. The first case in both incidents appeared around December, the local governments (then Guangzhou and now, Wuhan) concealed information on the epidemic for long. Both governments falsely claimed the viruses were not infectious or claimed there was no human-to-human transmission. Both times, the government held large gatherings with tens of thousands people involved during the critical early transmission period. The happenings then and now concern the illegal sale of live wildlife, but the government, both times, turned a blind eye to that illegal trade.
At that time, the government stated that the most critical lesson from SARS was “the significance of transparency.” But now the Wuhan government has repeated the attitude of 2003, it did not learn a lesson.
The Wuhan government is a living example of how disastrous an administrative omission can be, both before and after the outbreak. Faced with such a crisis, China has held Wuhan up as a ‘negative example’.
But that has not helped much; it has lost the trust of its people. In USA, some critical events happened over the months, the COVID-19 pandemic has struck America with an intensity—the most number of dead being Americans—which saw a lockdown enforced that people were most reluctant to observe; and the riots over the death of George Floyd.
These have heightened tensions and increased the anger and frustration of the people against the police forces and government. The people are questioning the functioning of the security apparatus and the intentions and measures taken by the government to secure people’s lives and liberty.
Politically, the US with President Trump is skeptical about the survival of their institutions. In the US, healthy political competition has been replaced by hyper-partisanship. At the federal level, many of the checks and balances on executive power have been denuded. American federalism which was a shock absorber is now also a potential source of conflict; class conflict is at the deepest it has been for decades. With President Donald Trump there is looming uncertainty over just how much the institutional frame of American politics might get tested. But one surest sign of an internal pathology is when a power gives up the very ideas that gave it deep internal and external legitimacy. America has made many mistakes in the conduct of its international affairs.
Thucydides Trap
Another ancient trap, which gained broad popularity, is known as the Thucydides Trap, which is meant to imply that whenever a rising power becomes strong, the existing established power feels threatened.
At this corona pandemic period both US and China are fighting war, almost every time in different fronts like diplomatic, business and trade and to conquer the world market. The Chinese attempt to displace American economic and strategic hegemony in the entire world system might invite a devastating war.
This comptition between the two superpowers has opened up the prospect of what described as the ’Thucydides Trap’—the possibility of deepening tension as one great power seeks to replace another. The tension has reached its peak in the recent times and Trump administration has been considering reviewing further economic relations with China.