The 13th edition of the Living Planet Report, 2020 was published in September 2020 by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in collaboration with the Institute of Zoology of the Zoological Society of London (ZSL). Entitled Bending the Curve of Biodiversity Loss, the report is based on the latest findings measured by ZSL’s Living Planet Index (LPI) that tracks 20,811 populations of 4,392 vertebrate species. The report is released in every two years. It is a comprehensive study of trends in global biodiversity and the health of the planet.
The series of catastrophic events like wildfires, locust plagues, and the COVID-19 pandemic, etc., have shaken the world recently. Experts opine that the only solution to avoid these tragic situations is possible by conserving our biodiversity.
Species’ population trends are important because they are a measure of overall ecosystem health. Measuring biodiversity, the variety of all living things, is complex, and there is no single measure that can capture all the changes in this web of life. Nevertheless, the vast majority of indicators show net declines over recent decades. The 2020 global Living Planet Index shows an average 68 per cent fall in monitored populations of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish between 1970 and 2016. Therefore, there is an urgent need to protect and restore nature which is the foundation for a healthy society, and a thriving economy.
The key findings of the report are as follows:
- An SOS for Nature
Biodiversity on the brink of crashing Since industrial revolution, human activities have increasingly destroyed and degraded forests, grasslands, wetlands, and other important ecosystems, threatening human well-being. The main drivers of biodiversity loss in terrestrial system in the last several decades has been—land-use change, conversion of habitats into agricultural systems, and overfishing.
During this period, seventy-five per cent of Earth’s ice-free land surface has been significantly altered, oceans are polluted, and more than 85 per cent of the area of wetlands has been lost, leading to one million species (5,00,000 animals and plants and 5,00,000 insects) being threatened with extinction over the coming decades to centuries, though many of these extinctions are preventable.
Global temperatures could reach the 1.5 °C aspirational target by the early to mid-2030s, and the 2 °C threshold by 2050–2070. If greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not reduced, global temperature may rise to 3–4 °C, with devastating effects on biodiversity and human well-being.
The Living Planet Index (LPI), 2020 includes 400 new species and 4,870 new populations, representing neotropical amphibians so as to fill data gaps for tropical species. This addition will help make the index a better reflection of trends in biodiversity.
Biodiversity declining at different rates in different places The most noticeable result seen in any region is the 94 per cent decline in the LPI for the tropical subregions of the Americas. In North America, changes in land and sea use, including habitat loss and degradation are: 52.5 per cent, species overexploitation (17.9 per cent), invasive species and disease (14.4 per cent), pollution (10.2 per cent), and climate change (5 per cent). In Europe and Central Asia, changes in land and sea use are: habitat loss and degradation (57.9 per cent), species overexploitation (17.9 per cent), invasive species and disease (10.9 per cent), pollution (7.5 per cent), and climate change (4 per cent).
In Latin America and Caribbean, changes in land and sea use are: habitat loss and degradation (51.2 per cent), species overexploitation (21.8 per cent), invasive species and disease (12.2 per cent), pollution (2.3 per cent), and climate change (12.5 per cent).
In Africa, changes in land and sea use are: habitat loss and degradation (45.9 per cent), species overexploitation (35.5 per cent), invasive species and disease (11.6 per cent), pollution (2.8 per cent), and climate change (4.1 per cent).
In Asia Pacific, changes in land and sea use are: habitat loss and degradation (43 per cent), species overexploitation (26.9 per cent), invasive species and disease (14 per cent), pollution (11 per cent), and climate change (5 per cent).
The habitat fragmentation due to hydropower development is already severely impacting populations and is predicted to pose greater threat in the future. The Atlantic Forest in Brazil has lost 87.6 per cent of its natural vegetation since the year 1500, mostly during the last century, which has led to at least two amphibian extinctions and 46 species threatened with extinction.
More than 2,000 species of amphibian are threatened with extinction, the highest current estimate among vertebrate groups. The chytrid fungus is the main recorded threat in El Cope in the highlands of central Panama, which caused mass mortality, leading to the loss of 30 amphibian species and severely reduced the diversity of the local amphibian community.
Freshwater biodiversity is declining far faster than that in oceans or forests.
The 3,741 monitored populations of 944 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fishes in the Freshwater Living Planet Index (FLPI) declined by an average of 84 per cent, equivalent to 4 per cent per year since 1970.
The freshwater megafauna are species that grow to more than 30 kg, and are subject to intense anthropogenic threats, including overexploitation, and strong population declines have been observed. Mega-fishes are particularly vulnerable. Catches in the Mekong River basin between 2000 and 2015, for example, have decreased for 78 per cent of species, and declines are stronger among medium- to large-bodied species. Large fishes are also heavily impacted by dam construction, which blocks their migratory routes to spawning and feeding grounds.
Other Indicators Showing Severe Declines in Biodiversity
IUCN red list index The IUCN Red List gives the most comprehensive and objective procedure for assessing the relative risk of extinction of species.
As per the IUCN Red List Index, humans have driven at least 680 species of vertebrates to extinction since 1500, and many other species are now at heightened risk of extinction due to human impacts. Over 1,00,000 species have so far been evaluated using information on life-history traits, population, and distribution size and structure, and each species has been assigned one of the eight categories: extinct, extinct in the wild, critically endangered, endangered, vulnerable, near threatened, least concern, and data deficient.
Mean Species Abundance (MSA) Index and Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) These are two modelled indices that estimate the intactness of animal and plant communities spatially. The indices range from 100–0 per cent, with 100 representing an undisturbed natural environment with little to no human footprint. The MSA Index has fallen to 66 per cent of its pre-impact value and is falling by 1.1 per cent per decade, whereas the BII has fallen to 79 per cent of its pre-impact value and is declining by 0.8 per cent per decade. The BII is very low in some regions, such as Western Europe, that have a long history of intensive use of the landscape. Both the MSA and BII are projected to continue to decline under business-as-usual socioeconomic trends.
The Species Habitat Index The index shows changes in species range and gives information about species habitat preferences. If has fallen by 1 per cent per decade since 1970 and, on average, the geographic distribution of terrestrial mammals, the only group for which baseline distribution could be estimated, has been reduced to 83 per cent of pre-impact values.
Soil biodiversity: saving the world beneath our feet Soil biodiversity supports terrestrial ecosystems including agriculture, urban, nature, and all biomes like forests, grasslands, tundra and deserts. Without soil biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems may collapse. As per the report, up to 90 per cent of living organisms in terrestrial ecosystems, including some pollinators, spend part of their life cycle in soil habitats. Soil organisms vary from 20 nm (nanometre) to 20–30 cm and are traditionally divided into four size classes: megafauna (20 mm+) vertebrates, such as mammalia, reptilia, and amphibia; macrofauna (2 mm–20 mm) are large soil invertebrates, such as earthworms, enchytraeids, woodlice, myriapods, insect larvae. The organisms are ecosystem engineers, move through the soil, perturb the soil, and increase water permeability, soil aeration, etc.
There is evidence of rapid declining of insects. The situation is grave in the northern hemisphere where a few taxa of insects in many countries are declining.
In Western Europe and North America, insects are declining rapidly due to the spread of intensive agriculture. The insect losses provide a forecast of global insect losses if anthropogenic disturbance and land-use change continue worldwide.
Plant diversity in serious decline Plant diversity loss not only threatens plants and their ecosystems but also the invaluable spectrum of services that plants provide to people and the planet. On average, more than 2,000 plant species continue to be described as new to science each year, adding to the total number of known vascular plant species, estimated to be between 3,40,000 to 3,90,000. Yet, only 10 per cent of plants have been assessed for the global IUCN Red List. The current coverage is also biased, with trees and threatened species more likely to have been assessed. However, assessment of a sample of thousands of species representing the taxonomic and geographic breadth of global plant diversity showed that one in five (22 per cent) is threatened with extinction, most of them in the tropics. The number of documented plant extinction is twice as many as for mammals, birds and amphibians combined. Relentless human population growth has damaged the world’s plant diversity, and many plants with medicinal properties, nutritional value, and ornamental appeal are now under threat of extinction. Agricultural land conversion has restricted the Madagascar banana to just three individuals in the wild; Indian belladonna, possessing medicinal properties, is threatened by deforestation, and indigenous Arabica coffee may sharply be reduced due to climate change.
Extinct plants The IUCN Red List documents 118 vascular plant species that are extinct in the wild, while as per a recent review, nearly 600 seed plant species have gone globally extinct in the wild. Several attempts like ex-situ conservation that to preserve species outside their natural habitat, seed-banking, and cryopreservation (the use of very low temperatures to preserve structurally intact living cells) are going on to address the problem. Global efforts such as the Millennium Seed Bank Partnership have extensive seed-collecting programmes in over 100 countries and territories for providing interim protection of species.
Decline in insect species As per a recent analysis of wild bee and hoverfly records, a net loss of 11 species (4 bees and 7 hoverflies) per 1 km2 was recorded between 1980 and 2013. The total abundance of large moths declined in the UK by 31 per cent between 1969 and 2016, while three-quarters of UK ground beetle species declined in abundance between 1994 and 2008, with half showing reductions of more than 30 per cent. There have been dramatic range declines in some North American bumblebee species. In Germany, insect abundance declined by 78 per cent and biomass by 67 per cent between 2008 and 2017 in grassland sites; and in a different set of sites, overall insect biomass declined by 76 per cent between 1989 and 2016.
Focus on European butterflies Globally, butterflies are still very poorly represented on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The latest results show trends in 17 typical grassland butterfly species for 16 European countries over 28 years. The index shows a decline of 49 per cent between 1990 and 2017. Six of the 17 species show a decline, seven are stable, and four are increasing.
Building a better picture of the insect world Analyses of insect datasets from the tropics or the southern hemisphere show some of them show fruit-feeding butterflies fluctuated in abundance in eastern Ecuador between 1994 and 2004, and in a forest in Uganda between 2000 and 2011, but with no obvious decline over time in either case. Orchid bees in Panama showed very high variability between years, but no overall change in abundance between 1979 and 2000. In contrast, a rainforest study in Puerto Rico found a very large drop in both canopy and ground arthropod biomass between surveys carried out in 1976 and 2012. Spread of intensive agriculture caused insect losses. A multi-pronged effort is urgently needed to identify the causes of global insect declines.
- Our World in 2020
The transformation in global trade, consumption, and human population growth in the last 50 years has taken place at the cost of nature and the stability of the Earth’s operating systems that sustain us. In the last five decades, child mortality decreased overall (350 per cent), more sharply in least developed countries. Caloric intake increased globally by 20 per cent, even though many people in least developed countries are still below the thresholds. Now, more than 50 per cent people globally live in cities and the number is increasing. Migration brings many changes. The large scale migration in recent times has created serious economic gaps among nations.
Now, one-third of the terrestrial land surface is used for cropping or animal husbandry, while 75 per cent of the total amount of water, withdrawn from available freshwater resources, is used for crops or livestock.
The direct exploitation of organisms, mainly in fishing, has expanded geographically and into deeper waters, and now covers over half the surface of the oceans. As shipping accounts for 90 per cent of world trade, the rate of new introductions of invasive species has rapidly increased since 1950.
The patterns of production, consumption, finance and governance, alongside population, migration and urbanisation demographics, are indirect drivers of biodiversity loss as they underlie land-use change and habitat loss, the overexploitation of natural resources, pollution, the spread of invasive species and climate change—the direct drivers of the destruction of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems.
Humanity now overspends its biological budget every year Since 1970, the ecological footprint has exceeded the Earth’s rate of regeneration. This overshoot erodes the planet’s health and, with it, humanity’s prospects. Through changes in technology and land management practices, global biocapacity has increased by about 28 per cent in the past six decades; however, this may be an overestimate because the losses such as soil erosion, groundwater depletion, and deforestation are not counted. Ecological footprint has increased by about 173 per cent over the last six years and now exceeds the planet’s biocapacity by 56 per cent. This means that the human enterprise currently demands 1.56 times more than the amount that Earth can regenerate.
The lockdowns due to COVID-19 have reduced humanity’s demand by nearly 10 per cent. However, since this reduction was not caused by structural change the gains are unlikely to last, and may even delay action on climate change and biodiversity loss.
The ecological footprint measures how much demand human consumption places on the biosphere and compares it to what ecosystems can renew. In 2020, the world average footprint amounted to 2.5 global hectares per person, compared to 1.6 global hectares of biocapacity. It can be broken down by area categories (outer circle) or, using multi-regional input-output assessments, by activity fields. Humanity’s ecological footprint by activities are food 29 per cent, housing 25 per cent, personal transportation 15 per cent, goods 14 per cent, and services 17 per cent. Similarly, humanity’s ecological footprint by land use are: cropland 19 per cent, grazing land 5 per cent, forest product 10 per cent, fishing grounds 3 per cent, built-up land 2 per cent, and carbon 60 per cent.
True cost of food Agri-food production systems that is, where and how we produce food, play a key role as a major land use and are also now widely acknowledged as one of the largest threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. The environmental impacts of food production can be understood through these data: agriculture is responsible for 80 per cent of global deforestation and accounts for 70 per cent of freshwater use; food systems release 29 per cent of global GHGs; drivers linked to food production cause 70 per cent of terrestrial biodiversity loss; drivers linked to food production cause 50 per cent of freshwater biodiversity loss; and 52 per cent of agricultural production land is degraded. Worldwide, over 820 million people face hunger or food insecurity, while staggering quantities of food loss and waste result in US$ 1 trillion in economic costs, around US$ 700 billion in environmental costs, and around US$ 900 billion in social costs.
Impact of the food loss Globally, more than 820 million people face hunger or food insecurity, while staggering quantities of food loss and waste result in US$ 1 trillion in economic costs, around US$ 700 billion in environmental costs and around US$ 900 billion in social costs. An estimated one-third of the food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted globally, amounting about 1.3 billion tonnes every year. Food loss and waste contribute to climate change, which is responsible for at least 6 per cent of total global GHG emissions, three times more than the global emissions from aviation. Almost a quarter of all emissions (24 per cent) from the food sector comes from food that is lost in supply chains or wasted by consumers. About 9 per cent comes from food thrown away by retailers and consumers.
By setting national food-waste targets and policies and introducing supply chain and operational practices to encourage widespread change, pressure on land and natural habitats can be eased.
Biodiversity’s catastrophic collapse on land Land-use change is currently the most important direct driver of biodiversity loss on land. Land use change is a major driver of biodiversity loss. It has been observed that human activities are altering natural habitats and reshaping life on Earth’s surface. The land surface covered by agricultural and built-up areas nearly doubled between 1900 and 2016. Land-use change has profound impacts on local biodiversity. When humans modify habitats, many species cannot persist in the new conditions.
The vertebrate populations have been declining in a rapid speed. This decline varies for different parts of the world. The species richness-the number of species occurring in an ecological community, landscape, or region—is estimated to decrease by a global average of 13.6 per cent in human-modified habitats compared to intact habitats, although the effects are geographically uneven. Mediterranean and tropical biodiversity has been found to be the most sensitive to land-use change. Land-use change also has indirect negative effects on biodiversity, for example through road-kills and human-wildlife conflicts.
By 2050, global land-use model projections show that without changes in diet, food production and food loss and waste, agricultural areas will have to expand in order to meet increased food demand. Future projections indicate that, by 2050, cropland areas may have to be 10 to 25 per cent larger than in 2005. Associated biodiversity losses may have negative effects on the delivery of ecosystem services, such as pollination and pest control, a situation compounded by the changing climate. This makes reconciling global food production with biodiversity conservation one of the major challenges of the 21st century.
Mapping the last wilderness areas on the earth The latest human footprint map clearly shows the spatial extent of humanity’s environmental footprint, with 58 per cent of the land’s surface under intense human pressure. Since 2000, 1.9 million km2, an area the size of Mexico of ecologically intact land has been lost, with most losses occurring within the world’s tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannah and shrubland ecosystems, and the rainforests of Southeast Asia. Only 25 per cent of terrestrial Earth can be considered ‘wilderness’ (i.e., areas having no human footprint score), and that most of this is contained in just a small number of nations: Russia, Canada, Brazil, and Australia. Once it has been eroded, an intact ecosystem and its many values can never be fully restored. Polar regions represent some of Earth’s last wilderness areas. Like species extinction, the erosion of the intact ecosystems is essentially irreversible and has profound impacts on species’, and our own, ability to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.
Our ocean is in ‘hot water’ Nowhere in the ocean is entirely unaffected by humans: only 13 per cent of its area is considered to be wilderness, waste and marine litter are found even in deep ocean trenches, and human pressures are increasing over time.
As per the UN FAO estimates, fish consumption (including freshwater) provides more than 3.3 billion people with at least 20 per cent of their animal protein intake, and that the fisheries and aquaculture sectors provide direct employment for 59.5 million people. About 200 million people depend on coral reefs to help protect them from storm surges and waves. Climate change may alter where large ocean fauna (like whales) feed, potentially bringing them into conflict with hazards like shipping; cause range shifts that can move fish stocks across national boundaries and outpace regulations and governance; affect nutrient cycles and productivity; increase the risk of species invasions; and change the potential for marine aquaculture production.
Drivers of change and their potential impacts Overfishing, pollution and coastal development, among other pressures, impacts the entire ocean, from shallow waters to the deep sea, and climate change will continue to cause a growing spectrum of effects across marine ecosystems. Fishing requirements lead to overexploitation, bycatch of non-target species, seafloor habitat destruction from seafloor trawling, illegal, unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing, gathering of organisms for the aquarium trade.
Climate change causes the warming of sea water, ocean acidification, increase in oxygen minimum zones, more frequent extreme events, and change in ocean currents. Land-based pollution leads to nutrient run-off, contaminants like heavy metals, micro, and macro-plastics. Ocean-based pollution results in fuel leaks and dumping from ships, oil spills from offshore platforms, and noise pollution.
Coastal development leads to destruction of habitats, increased pressure on local shorelines, increased pollution and waste. Offshore infrastructure results into physical disturbance of the seafloor, and creation of habitat structure. Shipping leads to vessel strikes and pollution from dumping. Mariculture (aquaculture of marine organisms) leads to physical presence of aquaculture facilities and pollution.
And deep-sea mining has caused seafloor destruction, settlement plumes on seabed, potential for leakages and chemical spills, and noise pollution. In addition to fishing, numerous other impacts-such as pollution, including plastic pollution, and coastal development-affect our oceans through a variety of mechanisms.
- People and Nature are Intertwined
Recently, a series of catastrophic events have shaken the world’s environmental conscience, showing that biodiversity conservation is more than an ethical commitment for humanity: it is a non-negotiable and strategic investment to preserve our health, wealth, and security.
The humans rely fundamentally on goods and services that are contributed and regulated by biodiversity, including food, clean water, climate mitigation and cultural connections. Nevertheless, our impact on biodiversity has been pervasive since prehistoric times, and environmental degradation has rapidly accelerated in recent decades.
Africa had, in 2019, its largest outbreak of desert locusts, which originated in the southern Arabian Peninsula, where climate change caused two cyclones with unusually heavy rainfall in 2018. In 2019 itself, an exceptionally hot and long heatwave led to extreme droughts in India and Pakistan, forcing tens of thousands of people to abandon their homes and causing an as-yet-unknown death toll. Then, there was COVID-19 outbreak. Though its origins remain uncertain, 60 per cent of emerging infectious diseases come from animals, and nearly three-quarters of these come from wild animals. The emergence of these diseases has a correlation with high human population density and high wildlife diversity. Anthropogenic changes like deforestation and the expansion of agricultural land, the intensification of livestock production, and the increased harvesting of wildlife also resulted in the emergence of diseases, such as Nipah in Malaysia in 1998, SARS in China in 2003, Ebola in West Africa in 2013-16, and so on.
Intrinsically interlinked: healthy planet, healthy people There have been huge gains in human health in the past five decades, such as under-5 child mortality has halved since 1990, the share of the world’s population living on less than US$ 1.90 a day fell by two-thirds over the same period, and life expectancy at birth is around 15 years higher today than it was 50 years ago. However, the loss of nature threatens to slow and, in some cases, reverse these positive health and well-being trends.
Over the last eight decades, the rate of infectious disease emergence drastically increased. Diseases originating in animals cause 2.5 billion cases of illness, and nearly 3 million deaths annually. As many diseases originate from wildlife, preventing the next pandemic might depend on understanding how humanity’s relationship with nature contributes to the emergence of these diseases.
Health and well-being in cities Urban green space will bring harm to ecosystem in some cities globally, including fostering the spread of infectious diseases and problematic interactions with wildlife, yet there is nonetheless an argument for urban green space as a fundamental element of sustainable, healthy, and liveable cities. Research shows green or natural environments promote health benefits like lower probabilities of cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, asthma hospitalisation, mental distress, mortality among adults; and lower risks of obesity, and myopia in children.
Biodiversity is fundamental to food security As per the report, urgent action is needed to address the loss of the biodiversity that feeds the world. The number of undernourished people in the world is reported to be about 820 million in 2019 and the number is increasing. Over 2 billion people are estimated not to have regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food. Better management of biodiversity has an important role to play in achieving UN Zero Hunger target.
Beyond the species that we eat, a vast range of others—as well as whole ecosystems—are essential to food production. The potential benefits of biodiversity for food security are far from being fully realised; species rich in micronutrients and vitamins, or better adapted to local conditions, are often underused. Only nine species of plants (sugar cane, maize, rice, wheat, potatoes, soybeans, cassava, sugar beet and oil palm) account for 67 per cent of all crop production.
There are around 6,000 species of terrestrial plants of which 9 account for two-thirds of crop production. There are thousands of varieties, landraces (dynamic populations of a cultivated plant), and cultivars of which some 5.3 million samples are stored in gene banks. About 40 species of terrestrial birds and mammals, of which 8 provide more than 95 per cent of the human food supply, which are from livestock. About 8,800 breeds are distinct within-species populations. Almost 700 species used in aquaculture, of which ten account for 50 per cent of production. Few of them are recognised as strains (distinct within-species populations).
There are thousands of species of fungi and micro-organisms which are essential for food processes such as fermentation. Around 60 species of edible fungi are commercially cultivated. Over 1,160 wild plant species are used as food by humans. At least 2,111 insect, 1,600 bird, 1,110 mammal, 140 reptile, and 230 amphibian species are eaten by humans. Over 1,800 species of fish, crustaceans, molluscs, echinoderms, coelenterates, and aquatic plants are harvested by global capture fisheries. 10 species/species groups account for 28 per cent of production. There are 1,154 species and genera of edible wild mushrooms.
Planetary health diet Healthy eating can help to save biodiversity and tackle diet-related disease risk—the leading cause of premature mortality globally. General overconsumption, especially of meat, has important impacts on both human and planetary health. The planetary health diet is one that retains significant flexibility of choice among major food groups while providing guidance which, if followed, would make it possible to feed a global population of 10 billion. If the conversion of intact ecosystems is checked, it would help reduce premature deaths by 11 million each year.
The second rise of the humble potato One study has estimated that climate-induced weather extremes could drive 13 wild potato species to extinction by 2055, whereas the loss of just one species could be catastrophic. In 2007, one of many unexpected frosts wiped out the entire potato harvest in Peru’s Huancavelica region, except for yana, which came between local families and extreme hunger. Andean native potatoes comprise a wealth of biodiversity that could contribute to the food security of an increasingly crowded, climate-stressed world. Conserving them is essential.
Human wealth depends on nature’s health Our economies are embedded within nature, and it is only by recognising and acting on this reality that we can protect and enhance biodiversity and improve our economic prosperity.
COVID-19 is a direct message that signals that failing to strike a balance between nature and human activity can bring dangerous consequences. Failing to live within the planet’s ‘safe operating space’ can be disastrous.
Data from the United Nations Environment Programme shows that, per person, our global stock of natural capital has declined nearly 40 per cent since the early 1990s, while produced capital has doubled and human capital has increased by 13 per cent. The general economic rules which track developmental indexes fail to estimate the economic loses due biodiversity.
Since the mid-20th century, humanity has prospered at an unprecedented rate. The average person today enjoys a far higher income, is less likely to be in absolute poverty, and lives significantly longer than their ancestors. These are tremendous achievements. Data from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) shows that, per person, our global stock of natural capital declined nearly 40 per cent since the early 1990s, while produced capital doubled and human capital increased by 13 per cent. Due to our over-demand, critical ecosystems are reaching tipping points. Ocean heatwaves have already destroyed half of the shallow-water corals on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. The economic impacts will be devastating because large numbers of people depend on coral reef fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition, particularly in developing countries. Reef tourism and recreation bring significant economic benefits.
The Dasgupta review on the economics of biodiversity The Dasgupta Review, an independent global review on the Economics of Biodiversity, led by Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta (Frank Ramsey Professor Emeritus, University of Cambridge) explores the sustainability of our engagements with nature: what we take from it; how we transform what we take from it and return to it; why we have disrupted nature’s processes; and what we must urgently do differently to enhance our collective wealth and well-being, and that of our descendants.
The loss of nature is a material risk for economic development and human well-being. The Nature Risk Rising report states that more than half the world’s GDP (US$ 44 trillion) is highly or moderately dependent on nature and its services. The loss of nature and biodiversity become most critical in agriculture and food supply. For example, 60 per cent of the world’s coffee varieties are in danger of extinction due to climate change, disease, and deforestation. If this happens, global coffee markets (US$ 83 billion in 2017) would be significantly destabilised, and it would affect the livelihoods of many smallholder farmers.
- Imagining a Roadmap for People and Nature
The ‘Bending the Curve Initiative’ provides a roadmap to restore biodiversity and meet the food needs of a growing human population. For ascertaining whether the terrestrial biodiversity declines can be reversed, the initiative used multiple state-of-the-art models and scenarios. The initiative is a consortium of many universities, conservation organisations, and intergovernmental organisations. Bolder conservation efforts are the key to ‘Bending the Curve’.
Choice or chance: countdown to the future The pioneering effort for the ‘Bending the Curve Initiative’ started in 2018, when WWF collaborated with a consortium of almost 50 partners. Multiple models were integrated to help us understand how we can reverse the loss of nature, save millions of species from extinction, and guard humans against a risky future. Cutting-edge new modelling shows that it is still possible to halt loss and reverse the trend of nature’s decline with urgent action.
How to bend the curve of biodiversity loss The above-mentioned initiative used many advanced models and scenarios to investigate whether we can reverse terrestrial biodiversity declines, and if so, how. Some future ‘what-if scenarios’ were developed, which include measures around increased conservation as well as reducing the impact of our global food system on terrestrial biodiversity, in terms of both production and consumption.
Different ways to get to the future we want Complementing the roadmap emerging from the initiative, other new modelling has evaluated the effectiveness of two contrasting conservation planning strategies, which are able to bend the curve of biodiversity loss, but this is only possible when combined with strong climate mitigation.
The first strategy-the ‘half-Earth’ scenario-calls for the expansion of the world’s protected areas to cover half of the Earth. This strategy is based on the belief that it is best to separate human pressures from nature to bend the curve of biodiversity loss. The second strategy-the ‘sharing the planet’ scenario-aims to support biodiversity while providing goods and services for humanity. This strategy takes the view that it is best to live with and through nature, connecting biodiversity targets with the achievement of a good quality of life.
The future predicted rise of biological invasions Numbers of alien species are rising unabatedly, and have increased by 37 per cent since 1970 without signs of saturation. These species pose major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Therefore, there is an urgent need to project and evaluate future trajectories of their accumulation, abundances, and impacts, which are currently absent from global biodiversity modelling initiatives.
Country-led modelling to achieve long-term sustainability in food and land-use systems Country-led analyses indicate that reversing biodiversity decline is possible after 2020 with targeted national strategies, ranging from dietary changes to restrictions on land conversion. Achieving these objectives by 2050 will need spatially explicit national actions, such as establishing effective protected areas, reforested land, and multifunctional working landscapes.
Making connections from land to sea Developments in global modelling of nutrient flows from a variety of human activities on land to coastal systems are promising, but the links to ecosystem responses across the land-ocean continuum are not to be found. These critical gaps need to be accounted for if we are to understand and predict the consequences and trade-offs of changing human activities for the planet. Climate change projections show that food production shocks across sectors are increasing, and are likely to worsen as extreme events such as marine heatwaves and drought become the ‘new normal’.
The path ahead The Bending the Curve modelling tells us that we can turn the tide of biodiversity loss with transformational change. It will take a global and collective effort, with increased conservation efforts as the key along with changes in how we produce and consume food and energy. Citizens, governments, and business leaders around the will would need to be a part of this movement. This report provides just a starting point for hopeful conservations.
- India Factsheet
Declining plant diversity India is a megadiverse country which holds over 45,000 species of plants in only 2.4 per cent of the world’s land area. In India, the IUCN Red List highlights six plant species that have become extinct or ‘extinct in the wild’ in the recent years.
The true cost of our food India is the world’s largest producer of milk, pulses and jute, and ranks as the second-largest producer of rice, wheat, sugarcane, groundnut, vegetables, fruits, and cotton. It is also one of the leading producers of spices, fish, poultry, livestock, and plantation crops. However, according to the FAO estimates, nearly 40 per cent of the food produced is lost or wasted. Other sources, such as the Food Corporation of India, report a share of losses ranging from 10 to 15 per cent of the total production. The Ministry of Food Processing Industries (MFPI) estimate losses of 23 million tonnes of grains, 12 million tonnes of fruits, and 21 million tonnes of vegetables for a total approximate value of about US$ 4.4 billion while total value of food loss and waste generated is supposedly US$ 10.6 billion.
Disappearing wilderness The India State of Forest Report (ISFR) 2019, released in December 2019, shows an increase of 5,188 km2 of forest and tree cover across the country compared to the ISFR 2017. However, northeast India continues to lose forests when compared to ISFR 2017 and previous reports. The forest area under the category ‘recorded forest area’ (land notified as forest by the government) in tribal districts, which are home to about 60 per cent of India’s forests, is also decreasing. According to an August 2019 analysis of the Legal Initiative for Forest and Environment, a Delhi-based advocacy, in the first six months of 2019, of the 240 proposals seeking diversion of forest land, 98.99 per cent of forest land considered for diversion was allowed to be put to non-forestry uses. About 43 per cent of forest land, recommended for diversion in 2019, falls in ecologically sensitive wildlife habitats.
Impact of climate change on Ocean Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) reported a 9 per cent decline in India’s marine fish production in 2018 as compared to 2017 due to climate change which reduced the Indian oil sardine population and reported a 54 per cent decline in fish landings. Likewise, there is a considerable reduction in the number of fishing days in West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry due to cyclonic storms. Fisheries reported a 49 per cent reduction along the north-eastern coastline compared to the fish landings in 2017. All four reef zones in India (Gulf of Mannar, Gulf of Kutch, Lakshadweep Atolls, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands) report coral bleaching. Terrestrial activities of deforestation, sand mining, and discharge of PIPs (persistent inorganic pollutants) and POPs (persistent organic pollutants), catastrophic events like tsunamis, climate change, and invasive species have all contributed to reef collapse in India.
Loss of freshwater environment and species According to a recent NITI Aayog Report, 820 million people in 12 river basins in India face high to extreme water stress. With irrigation, drinking, and energy sectors likely to grow, the water demand is estimated to be 1,498 billion cubic metres as against an availability of 744 billion cubic metres. This will aggravate the groundwater situation and put more stress on rivers. India has lost nearly one-third of its natural wetlands to urbanisation, agricultural expansion, and pollution over the last four decades. WWF India’s report on Water Stewardship for Industries revealed that 14 out of 20 river basins in India are already water stressed and will be moving to extreme water scarcity by 2050. The 2030 Water Resources Group has stated that by 2030, India’s water demand is projected to be twice the available supply. According to the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, 150 million bee colonies are needed to meet the pollination requirement of around 50 million hectares of agricultural land in India but there are only 1.2 million colonies present. There is no adequate information and documentation on insects in India except The Fauna of British India (FBI), published in the early 20th century.
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